Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 9°C in London on May 9, driven by verified Met Office observations from Heathrow Airport—the authoritative reference station—which recorded a screen minimum of 9°C around 04:00 amid light winds and partial cloud cover that limited radiative cooling. This aligns precisely with pre-event UKV and GFS model runs forecasting minima in the 8–10°C range under a stable high-pressure ridge, consistent with early May climatology where London overnight lows typically cluster between 7–12°C. Realistic challenges are minimal post-quality control, though a rare data audit revealing a lower reading at St James's Park or another official site could prompt revision; final resolution awaits Met Office daily summary confirmation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in London on May 9?
Lowest temperature in London on May 9?
9°C 100.0%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
6°C <1%
$55,056 Wol.
$55,056 Wol.
May 9, 2026
4°C or below
No
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
Yes
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C or higher
No
9°C 100.0%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
6°C <1%
$55,056 Wol.
$55,056 Wol.
May 9, 2026
4°C or below
$9,880 Wol.
No
5°C
$5,016 Wol.
No
6°C
$1,991 Wol.
No
7°C
$1,442 Wol.
No
8°C
$2,854 Wol.
No
9°C
$19,756 Wol.
Yes
10°C
$6,125 Wol.
No
11°C
$2,980 Wol.
No
12°C
$1,216 Wol.
No
13°C
$1,859 Wol.
No
14°C or higher
$1,936 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 9°C in London on May 9, driven by verified Met Office observations from Heathrow Airport—the authoritative reference station—which recorded a screen minimum of 9°C around 04:00 amid light winds and partial cloud cover that limited radiative cooling. This aligns precisely with pre-event UKV and GFS model runs forecasting minima in the 8–10°C range under a stable high-pressure ridge, consistent with early May climatology where London overnight lows typically cluster between 7–12°C. Realistic challenges are minimal post-quality control, though a rare data audit revealing a lower reading at St James's Park or another official site could prompt revision; final resolution awaits Met Office daily summary confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 7, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Wolumen
$55,056Data zakończenia
May 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 7, 2026, 12:01 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 9°C in London on May 9, driven by verified Met Office observations from Heathrow Airport—the authoritative reference station—which recorded a screen minimum of 9°C around 04:00 amid light winds and partial cloud cover that limited radiative cooling. This aligns precisely with pre-event UKV and GFS model runs forecasting minima in the 8–10°C range under a stable high-pressure ridge, consistent with early May climatology where London overnight lows typically cluster between 7–12°C. Realistic challenges are minimal post-quality control, though a rare data audit revealing a lower reading at St James's Park or another official site could prompt revision; final resolution awaits Met Office daily summary confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$55,056Data zakończenia
May 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 7, 2026, 12:01 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 9°C in London on May 9, driven by verified Met Office observations from Heathrow Airport—the authoritative reference station—which recorded a screen minimum of 9°C around 04:00 amid light winds and partial cloud cover that limited radiative cooling. This aligns precisely with pre-event UKV and GFS model runs forecasting minima in the 8–10°C range under a stable high-pressure ridge, consistent with early May climatology where London overnight lows typically cluster between 7–12°C. Realistic challenges are minimal post-quality control, though a rare data audit revealing a lower reading at St James's Park or another official site could prompt revision; final resolution awaits Met Office daily summary confirmation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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