Recent model consensus and PAGASA guidance point to persistent southwest monsoon flow combined with ITCZ influences and a nearby low-pressure area, sustaining widespread cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms over Manila through September 20. These conditions are expected to limit solar heating and cap daytime maxima near or slightly above the seasonal 30–31 °C baseline, explaining why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 32–34 °C rather than higher values. Afternoon convective timing, localized rainfall intensity, and any short-term steering changes remain the key variables that could shift the observed peak by 1–2 °C. Updated PAGASA bulletins and next GFS/ECMWF runs will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Manila on September 20?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 20?
32°C 37%
33°C 37%
34°C 35%
35°C 21%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 20, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
9%
30°C
12%
31°C
14%
32°C
37%
33°C
37%
34°C
35%
35°C
21%
36°C
16%
37°C
2%
38°C or higher
<1%
32°C 37%
33°C 37%
34°C 35%
35°C 21%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 20, 2026
28°C or below
$0 Wol.
<1%
29°C
$0 Wol.
9%
30°C
$2 Wol.
12%
31°C
$0 Wol.
14%
32°C
$0 Wol.
37%
33°C
$0 Wol.
37%
34°C
$0 Wol.
35%
35°C
$0 Wol.
21%
36°C
$0 Wol.
16%
37°C
$0 Wol.
2%
38°C or higher
$0 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus and PAGASA guidance point to persistent southwest monsoon flow combined with ITCZ influences and a nearby low-pressure area, sustaining widespread cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms over Manila through September 20. These conditions are expected to limit solar heating and cap daytime maxima near or slightly above the seasonal 30–31 °C baseline, explaining why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 32–34 °C rather than higher values. Afternoon convective timing, localized rainfall intensity, and any short-term steering changes remain the key variables that could shift the observed peak by 1–2 °C. Updated PAGASA bulletins and next GFS/ECMWF runs will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 18, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Wolumen
$2Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 18, 2026, 12:59 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus and PAGASA guidance point to persistent southwest monsoon flow combined with ITCZ influences and a nearby low-pressure area, sustaining widespread cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms over Manila through September 20. These conditions are expected to limit solar heating and cap daytime maxima near or slightly above the seasonal 30–31 °C baseline, explaining why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 32–34 °C rather than higher values. Afternoon convective timing, localized rainfall intensity, and any short-term steering changes remain the key variables that could shift the observed peak by 1–2 °C. Updated PAGASA bulletins and next GFS/ECMWF runs will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$2Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 18, 2026, 12:59 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus and PAGASA guidance point to persistent southwest monsoon flow combined with ITCZ influences and a nearby low-pressure area, sustaining widespread cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms over Manila through September 20. These conditions are expected to limit solar heating and cap daytime maxima near or slightly above the seasonal 30–31 °C baseline, explaining why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 32–34 °C rather than higher values. Afternoon convective timing, localized rainfall intensity, and any short-term steering changes remain the key variables that could shift the observed peak by 1–2 °C. Updated PAGASA bulletins and next GFS/ECMWF runs will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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