Forecast models from sources like PredictWind and WeatherBug project a minimum temperature of 24–26°C for Manila on September 15, consistent with historical September averages of 24–26°C nighttime lows amid the southwest monsoon. Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 85–95%, and frequent thunderstorms limit radiative cooling overnight while light easterly or variable winds reduce mixing, keeping the diurnal range narrow. These factors concentrate market-implied odds on 25–27°C outcomes, with lower probabilities for extremes reflecting the low likelihood of clear skies or stronger cooling events in peak rainy season. Updated model runs ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalyst for any shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Manila on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 15?
21°C or below 46%
31°C or higher 46%
26°C 29%
27°C 29%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 15, 2026
21°C or below
46%
22°C
13%
23°C
22%
24°C
22%
25°C
26%
26°C
29%
27°C
29%
28°C
22%
29°C
17%
30°C
17%
31°C or higher
46%
21°C or below 46%
31°C or higher 46%
26°C 29%
27°C 29%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 15, 2026
21°C or below
$10 Wol.
46%
22°C
$10 Wol.
13%
23°C
$0 Wol.
22%
24°C
$0 Wol.
22%
25°C
$0 Wol.
26%
26°C
$0 Wol.
29%
27°C
$0 Wol.
29%
28°C
$0 Wol.
22%
29°C
$10 Wol.
17%
30°C
$10 Wol.
17%
31°C or higher
$10 Wol.
46%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like PredictWind and WeatherBug project a minimum temperature of 24–26°C for Manila on September 15, consistent with historical September averages of 24–26°C nighttime lows amid the southwest monsoon. Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 85–95%, and frequent thunderstorms limit radiative cooling overnight while light easterly or variable winds reduce mixing, keeping the diurnal range narrow. These factors concentrate market-implied odds on 25–27°C outcomes, with lower probabilities for extremes reflecting the low likelihood of clear skies or stronger cooling events in peak rainy season. Updated model runs ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalyst for any shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Wolumen
$50Data zakończenia
Sep 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like PredictWind and WeatherBug project a minimum temperature of 24–26°C for Manila on September 15, consistent with historical September averages of 24–26°C nighttime lows amid the southwest monsoon. Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 85–95%, and frequent thunderstorms limit radiative cooling overnight while light easterly or variable winds reduce mixing, keeping the diurnal range narrow. These factors concentrate market-implied odds on 25–27°C outcomes, with lower probabilities for extremes reflecting the low likelihood of clear skies or stronger cooling events in peak rainy season. Updated model runs ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalyst for any shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$50Data zakończenia
Sep 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources like PredictWind and WeatherBug project a minimum temperature of 24–26°C for Manila on September 15, consistent with historical September averages of 24–26°C nighttime lows amid the southwest monsoon. Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 85–95%, and frequent thunderstorms limit radiative cooling overnight while light easterly or variable winds reduce mixing, keeping the diurnal range narrow. These factors concentrate market-implied odds on 25–27°C outcomes, with lower probabilities for extremes reflecting the low likelihood of clear skies or stronger cooling events in peak rainy season. Updated model runs ahead of the overnight period remain the key near-term catalyst for any shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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