Recent forecast model consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and GFS data positions 30–31°C as the most likely maximum for Tokyo on September 14, with mostly clear skies, southerly winds around 10–20 km/h, and low precipitation odds supporting daytime heating without significant cloud cover or rain cooling. This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 30°C at 43.5% and 31°C at 29%, as current runs show afternoon peaks near 30.5–31°C amid residual late-summer warmth. Historical September averages near 27°C provide context, but the specific steering pattern and pressure gradients this week have nudged probabilities upward from earlier outlooks. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 14?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 14?
30°C 44%
31°C 30%
29°C 16%
32°C 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 14, 2026
25°C or below
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
5%
28°C
4%
29°C
16%
30°C
44%
31°C
30%
32°C
7%
33°C
2%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 44%
31°C 30%
29°C 16%
32°C 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 14, 2026
25°C or below
$302 Wol.
1%
26°C
$46 Wol.
2%
27°C
$70 Wol.
5%
28°C
$69 Wol.
4%
29°C
$510 Wol.
16%
30°C
$521 Wol.
44%
31°C
$907 Wol.
30%
32°C
$103 Wol.
7%
33°C
$56 Wol.
2%
34°C
$71 Wol.
2%
35°C or higher
$35 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and GFS data positions 30–31°C as the most likely maximum for Tokyo on September 14, with mostly clear skies, southerly winds around 10–20 km/h, and low precipitation odds supporting daytime heating without significant cloud cover or rain cooling. This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 30°C at 43.5% and 31°C at 29%, as current runs show afternoon peaks near 30.5–31°C amid residual late-summer warmth. Historical September averages near 27°C provide context, but the specific steering pattern and pressure gradients this week have nudged probabilities upward from earlier outlooks. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,689Data zakończenia
Sep 14, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and GFS data positions 30–31°C as the most likely maximum for Tokyo on September 14, with mostly clear skies, southerly winds around 10–20 km/h, and low precipitation odds supporting daytime heating without significant cloud cover or rain cooling. This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 30°C at 43.5% and 31°C at 29%, as current runs show afternoon peaks near 30.5–31°C amid residual late-summer warmth. Historical September averages near 27°C provide context, but the specific steering pattern and pressure gradients this week have nudged probabilities upward from earlier outlooks. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$2,689Data zakończenia
Sep 14, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and GFS data positions 30–31°C as the most likely maximum for Tokyo on September 14, with mostly clear skies, southerly winds around 10–20 km/h, and low precipitation odds supporting daytime heating without significant cloud cover or rain cooling. This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 30°C at 43.5% and 31°C at 29%, as current runs show afternoon peaks near 30.5–31°C amid residual late-summer warmth. Historical September averages near 27°C provide context, but the specific steering pattern and pressure gradients this week have nudged probabilities upward from earlier outlooks. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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