Recent forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models indicate persistent monsoon-driven cloud cover and high humidity over Seoul through mid-July 2026, suppressing radiative cooling and elevating overnight lows above seasonal norms. This atmospheric setup, with moist air masses and limited clear-sky periods, positions 27°C or higher as the leading market outcome at 47.5% implied probability, while the typical July minimum near 23°C explains the clustering of probability in the 21–24°C bins. Heatwave advisories active across parts of South Korea further support trader expectations of reduced diurnal temperature ranges. Updated KMA short-range guidance and ensemble model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will provide the next key data points for refining these minimum-temperature thresholds.