Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns virtually 100% implied probability to a 13°C lowest temperature in Tokyo on April 25, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast issued at 17:00 JST, which aligns with partly cloudy conditions limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Current observations and hourly data show overnight lows stabilizing near historical late-April norms of 12.2°C, with April 2026 running slightly above average amid mild spring high-pressure influences. AccuWeather models corroborate with lows around 14°C, reinforcing market positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 12°C or below, though low cloud cover and urban heat island effects in Tokyo make this improbable; final JMA observation at day's end will resolve.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on April 25?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on April 25?
13°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$26,930 Wol.
$26,930 Wol.
Apr 25, 2026
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
Yes
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
13°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$26,930 Wol.
$26,930 Wol.
Apr 25, 2026
8°C or below
$4,304 Wol.
No
9°C
$1,124 Wol.
No
10°C
$2,345 Wol.
No
11°C
$2,050 Wol.
No
12°C
$5,073 Wol.
No
13°C
$4,065 Wol.
Yes
14°C
$279 Wol.
No
15°C
$835 Wol.
No
16°C
$1,249 Wol.
No
17°C
$1,045 Wol.
No
18°C or higher
$4,562 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns virtually 100% implied probability to a 13°C lowest temperature in Tokyo on April 25, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast issued at 17:00 JST, which aligns with partly cloudy conditions limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Current observations and hourly data show overnight lows stabilizing near historical late-April norms of 12.2°C, with April 2026 running slightly above average amid mild spring high-pressure influences. AccuWeather models corroborate with lows around 14°C, reinforcing market positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 12°C or below, though low cloud cover and urban heat island effects in Tokyo make this improbable; final JMA observation at day's end will resolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 23, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Wolumen
$26,930Data zakończenia
Apr 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 23, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns virtually 100% implied probability to a 13°C lowest temperature in Tokyo on April 25, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast issued at 17:00 JST, which aligns with partly cloudy conditions limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Current observations and hourly data show overnight lows stabilizing near historical late-April norms of 12.2°C, with April 2026 running slightly above average amid mild spring high-pressure influences. AccuWeather models corroborate with lows around 14°C, reinforcing market positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 12°C or below, though low cloud cover and urban heat island effects in Tokyo make this improbable; final JMA observation at day's end will resolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$26,930Data zakończenia
Apr 25, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 23, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns virtually 100% implied probability to a 13°C lowest temperature in Tokyo on April 25, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast issued at 17:00 JST, which aligns with partly cloudy conditions limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Current observations and hourly data show overnight lows stabilizing near historical late-April norms of 12.2°C, with April 2026 running slightly above average amid mild spring high-pressure influences. AccuWeather models corroborate with lows around 14°C, reinforcing market positioning. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing skies overnight enabling sharper cooling to 12°C or below, though low cloud cover and urban heat island effects in Tokyo make this improbable; final JMA observation at day's end will resolve.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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