Recent short-range forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a likely overnight low near 25°C for Tokyo on July 18, aligning with market-implied odds clustering around 25–26°C. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover that modulates radiative cooling, urban heat island effects from Tokyo's dense infrastructure retaining warmth, and humidity levels near 75–80% that limit temperature drops. High-pressure steering patterns and light winds could further stabilize minima in the mid-20s, while any late-afternoon showers or clearer skies introduce uncertainty that keeps adjacent outcomes competitive. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on July 18?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 18?
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$18,659 Wol.
$18,659 Wol.
Jul 18, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$18,659 Wol.
$18,659 Wol.
Jul 18, 2026
20°C or below
$232 Wol.
No
21°C
$479 Wol.
No
22°C
$932 Wol.
No
23°C
$2,179 Wol.
No
24°C
$2,013 Wol.
No
25°C
$5,530 Wol.
Yes
26°C
$4,417 Wol.
No
27°C
$1,259 Wol.
No
28°C
$589 Wol.
No
29°C
$649 Wol.
No
30°C or higher
$380 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a likely overnight low near 25°C for Tokyo on July 18, aligning with market-implied odds clustering around 25–26°C. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover that modulates radiative cooling, urban heat island effects from Tokyo's dense infrastructure retaining warmth, and humidity levels near 75–80% that limit temperature drops. High-pressure steering patterns and light winds could further stabilize minima in the mid-20s, while any late-afternoon showers or clearer skies introduce uncertainty that keeps adjacent outcomes competitive. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$18,659Data zakończenia
Jul 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a likely overnight low near 25°C for Tokyo on July 18, aligning with market-implied odds clustering around 25–26°C. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover that modulates radiative cooling, urban heat island effects from Tokyo's dense infrastructure retaining warmth, and humidity levels near 75–80% that limit temperature drops. High-pressure steering patterns and light winds could further stabilize minima in the mid-20s, while any late-afternoon showers or clearer skies introduce uncertainty that keeps adjacent outcomes competitive. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$18,659Data zakończenia
Jul 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Recent short-range forecast models from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a likely overnight low near 25°C for Tokyo on July 18, aligning with market-implied odds clustering around 25–26°C. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover that modulates radiative cooling, urban heat island effects from Tokyo's dense infrastructure retaining warmth, and humidity levels near 75–80% that limit temperature drops. High-pressure steering patterns and light winds could further stabilize minima in the mid-20s, while any late-afternoon showers or clearer skies introduce uncertainty that keeps adjacent outcomes competitive. Updated model runs in the next 24–48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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