**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Warsaw on August 29 most likely between 14–16°C, with cloud cover, light rain, and southerly flow limiting overnight radiative cooling.** Multiple sources, including global and regional models, project overnight lows around 14–16°C amid increasing clouds and a chance of precipitation (0.1–5 mm), which reduces the potential for stronger cooling under clear skies. Daytime highs are expected near 21–24°C as a weak frontal system moves through. This setup creates uncertainty in the exact minimum, as small differences in cloud timing or wind speed can shift the low by 1–2°C. The tight market split between 15°C (45.5%) and 13°C (43.5%) reflects this model variability and the narrow margin between common forecast outputs, while lower-probability outcomes like 14°C or 11°C or below capture tail risks from greater clearing or stronger advection. Historical August minima near 15°C provide context, but the current pattern favors a slightly milder night than average. Updated model runs and observations over the next 48 hours will be the key drivers for any shifts in implied probabilities.