Tropical Storm Dolly formed in the eastern Atlantic on August 27, 2026, but rapidly encountered strong southwesterly wind shear and dry air that disrupted its circulation, leading the National Hurricane Center to downgrade it to an open tropical wave by August 28 with sustained winds near 35 knots. Official forecasts and model consensus project continued weakening and dissipation as the system moves quickly westward toward the Leeward Islands, preventing the organization and intensification required to reach hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale. This environmental hostility, combined with the storm’s minimal initial intensity and fast forward motion, underpins the 94% market-implied odds against strengthening. While some longer-range guidance notes a low-probability chance of later redevelopment in more favorable waters near the Bahamas, current conditions and NHC guidance indicate that outcome remains unlikely before the system dissipates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
Will Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
6% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 3, 2026
6% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 3, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Dolly formed in the eastern Atlantic on August 27, 2026, but rapidly encountered strong southwesterly wind shear and dry air that disrupted its circulation, leading the National Hurricane Center to downgrade it to an open tropical wave by August 28 with sustained winds near 35 knots. Official forecasts and model consensus project continued weakening and dissipation as the system moves quickly westward toward the Leeward Islands, preventing the organization and intensification required to reach hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale. This environmental hostility, combined with the storm’s minimal initial intensity and fast forward motion, underpins the 94% market-implied odds against strengthening. While some longer-range guidance notes a low-probability chance of later redevelopment in more favorable waters near the Bahamas, current conditions and NHC guidance indicate that outcome remains unlikely before the system dissipates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Rynek otwarty: Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Wolumen
$170Data zakończenia
Sep 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Rozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Dolly formed in the eastern Atlantic on August 27, 2026, but rapidly encountered strong southwesterly wind shear and dry air that disrupted its circulation, leading the National Hurricane Center to downgrade it to an open tropical wave by August 28 with sustained winds near 35 knots. Official forecasts and model consensus project continued weakening and dissipation as the system moves quickly westward toward the Leeward Islands, preventing the organization and intensification required to reach hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale. This environmental hostility, combined with the storm’s minimal initial intensity and fast forward motion, underpins the 94% market-implied odds against strengthening. While some longer-range guidance notes a low-probability chance of later redevelopment in more favorable waters near the Bahamas, current conditions and NHC guidance indicate that outcome remains unlikely before the system dissipates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Wolumen
$170Data zakończenia
Sep 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Rozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Tropical Storm Dolly formed in the eastern Atlantic on August 27, 2026, but rapidly encountered strong southwesterly wind shear and dry air that disrupted its circulation, leading the National Hurricane Center to downgrade it to an open tropical wave by August 28 with sustained winds near 35 knots. Official forecasts and model consensus project continued weakening and dissipation as the system moves quickly westward toward the Leeward Islands, preventing the organization and intensification required to reach hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale. This environmental hostility, combined with the storm’s minimal initial intensity and fast forward motion, underpins the 94% market-implied odds against strengthening. While some longer-range guidance notes a low-probability chance of later redevelopment in more favorable waters near the Bahamas, current conditions and NHC guidance indicate that outcome remains unlikely before the system dissipates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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