Forecasts for Guangzhou on August 29 show a tight range of daily maxima centered around 32–36°C, with model outputs reflecting modest spread due to variable thunderstorm timing and coverage. Subtropical monsoon conditions, high humidity near 70–80%, and frequent afternoon convection from the China Meteorological Administration guidance tend to limit peak heating by increasing cloud cover and evaporative cooling, favoring outcomes near 35–36°C when showers arrive midday or earlier. Clearer morning windows or delayed precipitation in some ensemble members allow stronger insolation and temperatures reaching 37°C, while stronger or more persistent rain would suppress readings toward 34°C or below. Historical August averages near 33–34°C provide context, but short-term steering flows and local sea-breeze effects introduce the uncertainty captured in the closely matched market probabilities for 36°C and 37°C. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the consensus before resolution.