The southwest monsoon, or habagat, currently enhanced by a nearby low-pressure area, serves as the main driver behind trader consensus favoring 31–32°C highs for Manila on August 31, with implied probabilities of 28.5% and 30.0%. Persistent cloud cover, scattered to occasional rains, and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds limit solar heating and promote convective cooling, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the long-term August average of 31°C. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model outputs reflect this suppressed thermal regime through the period, though brief breaks in monsoon activity or localized thunderstorm timing could allow brief excursions to 33°C or hold peaks at 30°C. Updated PAGASA bulletins and short-range model runs in the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for final resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Manila on August 31?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 31?
31°C 29%
32°C 28%
30°C 24%
33°C 23%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
14%
29°C
12%
30°C
24%
31°C
29%
32°C
26%
33°C
23%
34°C
18%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 29%
32°C 28%
30°C 24%
33°C 23%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
25°C or below
$0 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$0 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$0 Wol.
1%
28°C
$0 Wol.
14%
29°C
$4 Wol.
12%
30°C
$2 Wol.
24%
31°C
$15 Wol.
29%
32°C
$327 Wol.
26%
33°C
$0 Wol.
23%
34°C
$0 Wol.
18%
35°C or higher
$0 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The southwest monsoon, or habagat, currently enhanced by a nearby low-pressure area, serves as the main driver behind trader consensus favoring 31–32°C highs for Manila on August 31, with implied probabilities of 28.5% and 30.0%. Persistent cloud cover, scattered to occasional rains, and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds limit solar heating and promote convective cooling, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the long-term August average of 31°C. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model outputs reflect this suppressed thermal regime through the period, though brief breaks in monsoon activity or localized thunderstorm timing could allow brief excursions to 33°C or hold peaks at 30°C. Updated PAGASA bulletins and short-range model runs in the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Wolumen
$348Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The southwest monsoon, or habagat, currently enhanced by a nearby low-pressure area, serves as the main driver behind trader consensus favoring 31–32°C highs for Manila on August 31, with implied probabilities of 28.5% and 30.0%. Persistent cloud cover, scattered to occasional rains, and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds limit solar heating and promote convective cooling, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the long-term August average of 31°C. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model outputs reflect this suppressed thermal regime through the period, though brief breaks in monsoon activity or localized thunderstorm timing could allow brief excursions to 33°C or hold peaks at 30°C. Updated PAGASA bulletins and short-range model runs in the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$348Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The southwest monsoon, or habagat, currently enhanced by a nearby low-pressure area, serves as the main driver behind trader consensus favoring 31–32°C highs for Manila on August 31, with implied probabilities of 28.5% and 30.0%. Persistent cloud cover, scattered to occasional rains, and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds limit solar heating and promote convective cooling, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the long-term August average of 31°C. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model outputs reflect this suppressed thermal regime through the period, though brief breaks in monsoon activity or localized thunderstorm timing could allow brief excursions to 33°C or hold peaks at 30°C. Updated PAGASA bulletins and short-range model runs in the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for final resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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