**Forecast uncertainty around overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing is driving the tight clustering of Polymarket odds around 5–8 °C for Warsaw’s September 13 minimum.** Latest GFS and ensemble guidance show a weak pressure gradient with light southwesterly flow and increasing mid-level cloud, conditions that limit the clear-sky temperature drop while still allowing dew-point depression to push the low into the upper single digits Celsius. Historical September climatology places the typical minimum near 10 °C, so the current spread reflects modest model disagreement on cloud timing and wind speed rather than a major synoptic shift. Traders appear to be weighting the risk of localized clearing that could briefly dip readings toward 5–7 °C against the more probable scenario of persistent stratus keeping the floor near 8 °C. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening of the 12th will be the next key inputs.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 13?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 13?
5°C or below 45%
15°C or higher 45%
13°C 39%
7°C 32%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 13, 2026
5°C or below
45%
6°C
9%
7°C
32%
8°C
30%
9°C
22%
10°C
22%
11°C
14%
12°C
13%
13°C
39%
14°C
5%
15°C or higher
45%
5°C or below 45%
15°C or higher 45%
13°C 39%
7°C 32%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 13, 2026
5°C or below
$90 Wol.
45%
6°C
$100 Wol.
9%
7°C
$19 Wol.
32%
8°C
$0 Wol.
30%
9°C
$0 Wol.
22%
10°C
$0 Wol.
22%
11°C
$0 Wol.
14%
12°C
$0 Wol.
13%
13°C
$0 Wol.
39%
14°C
$0 Wol.
5%
15°C or higher
$33 Wol.
45%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty around overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing is driving the tight clustering of Polymarket odds around 5–8 °C for Warsaw’s September 13 minimum.** Latest GFS and ensemble guidance show a weak pressure gradient with light southwesterly flow and increasing mid-level cloud, conditions that limit the clear-sky temperature drop while still allowing dew-point depression to push the low into the upper single digits Celsius. Historical September climatology places the typical minimum near 10 °C, so the current spread reflects modest model disagreement on cloud timing and wind speed rather than a major synoptic shift. Traders appear to be weighting the risk of localized clearing that could briefly dip readings toward 5–7 °C against the more probable scenario of persistent stratus keeping the floor near 8 °C. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening of the 12th will be the next key inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$242Data zakończenia
Sep 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty around overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing is driving the tight clustering of Polymarket odds around 5–8 °C for Warsaw’s September 13 minimum.** Latest GFS and ensemble guidance show a weak pressure gradient with light southwesterly flow and increasing mid-level cloud, conditions that limit the clear-sky temperature drop while still allowing dew-point depression to push the low into the upper single digits Celsius. Historical September climatology places the typical minimum near 10 °C, so the current spread reflects modest model disagreement on cloud timing and wind speed rather than a major synoptic shift. Traders appear to be weighting the risk of localized clearing that could briefly dip readings toward 5–7 °C against the more probable scenario of persistent stratus keeping the floor near 8 °C. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening of the 12th will be the next key inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$242Data zakończenia
Sep 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast uncertainty around overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing is driving the tight clustering of Polymarket odds around 5–8 °C for Warsaw’s September 13 minimum.** Latest GFS and ensemble guidance show a weak pressure gradient with light southwesterly flow and increasing mid-level cloud, conditions that limit the clear-sky temperature drop while still allowing dew-point depression to push the low into the upper single digits Celsius. Historical September climatology places the typical minimum near 10 °C, so the current spread reflects modest model disagreement on cloud timing and wind speed rather than a major synoptic shift. Traders appear to be weighting the risk of localized clearing that could briefly dip readings toward 5–7 °C against the more probable scenario of persistent stratus keeping the floor near 8 °C. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening of the 12th will be the next key inputs.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania