Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like MetService and global ensembles show Wellington's overnight minimum reaching exactly 8°C on September 18 due to clear skies, light northerly winds, and efficient radiative cooling under stable high pressure. This aligns with observed hourly trends dipping to around 7–9°C in the pre-dawn hours without significant cold-air advection or cloud cover to moderate temperatures. The overwhelming market-implied probability reflects this tight model consensus and limited forecast uncertainty near resolution. A sudden increase in wind speed or unexpected low-level moisture could prevent full radiative cooling and push the minimum above 8°C, while stronger-than-expected southerly flow might introduce cooler air and drop readings lower.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Wellington on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 18?
8°C 100.0%
6°C <1%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
$358 Wol.
$358 Wol.
Sep 18, 2026
4°C or below
No
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
Yes
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C or higher
No
8°C 100.0%
6°C <1%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
$358 Wol.
$358 Wol.
Sep 18, 2026
4°C or below
$31 Wol.
No
5°C
$31 Wol.
No
6°C
$30 Wol.
No
7°C
$74 Wol.
No
8°C
$66 Wol.
Yes
9°C
$71 Wol.
No
10°C
$30 Wol.
No
11°C
$10 Wol.
No
12°C
$0 Wol.
No
13°C
$0 Wol.
No
14°C or higher
$15 Wol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like MetService and global ensembles show Wellington's overnight minimum reaching exactly 8°C on September 18 due to clear skies, light northerly winds, and efficient radiative cooling under stable high pressure. This aligns with observed hourly trends dipping to around 7–9°C in the pre-dawn hours without significant cold-air advection or cloud cover to moderate temperatures. The overwhelming market-implied probability reflects this tight model consensus and limited forecast uncertainty near resolution. A sudden increase in wind speed or unexpected low-level moisture could prevent full radiative cooling and push the minimum above 8°C, while stronger-than-expected southerly flow might introduce cooler air and drop readings lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$358Data zakończenia
Sep 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like MetService and global ensembles show Wellington's overnight minimum reaching exactly 8°C on September 18 due to clear skies, light northerly winds, and efficient radiative cooling under stable high pressure. This aligns with observed hourly trends dipping to around 7–9°C in the pre-dawn hours without significant cold-air advection or cloud cover to moderate temperatures. The overwhelming market-implied probability reflects this tight model consensus and limited forecast uncertainty near resolution. A sudden increase in wind speed or unexpected low-level moisture could prevent full radiative cooling and push the minimum above 8°C, while stronger-than-expected southerly flow might introduce cooler air and drop readings lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$358Data zakończenia
Sep 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like MetService and global ensembles show Wellington's overnight minimum reaching exactly 8°C on September 18 due to clear skies, light northerly winds, and efficient radiative cooling under stable high pressure. This aligns with observed hourly trends dipping to around 7–9°C in the pre-dawn hours without significant cold-air advection or cloud cover to moderate temperatures. The overwhelming market-implied probability reflects this tight model consensus and limited forecast uncertainty near resolution. A sudden increase in wind speed or unexpected low-level moisture could prevent full radiative cooling and push the minimum above 8°C, while stronger-than-expected southerly flow might introduce cooler air and drop readings lower.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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