The strong Democratic tilt of New Jersey’s 12th District, with a partisan lean around D+13 and Democratic voter registration roughly double that of Republicans, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Bonnie Watson Coleman’s retirement opened a crowded primary that Adam Hamawy won in June with roughly 28 percent in a fragmented field, positioning him to succeed her against Republican Gregg Mele, who faced no primary opposition. Historical results in the district, including the prior incumbent’s 60-plus percent margins, reinforce the structural edge. Low single-digit Republican odds reflect the absence of competitive polling shifts or major developments since the primary. A late national Republican wave, significant candidate-specific controversies, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though such outcomes remain distant from current pricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNJ-12 House Election Winner
NJ-12 House Election Winner
$22,311 Wol.
$22,311 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$22,311 Wol.
$22,311 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,221 Wol.
94%
Republican Party
$8,089 Wol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic tilt of New Jersey’s 12th District, with a partisan lean around D+13 and Democratic voter registration roughly double that of Republicans, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Bonnie Watson Coleman’s retirement opened a crowded primary that Adam Hamawy won in June with roughly 28 percent in a fragmented field, positioning him to succeed her against Republican Gregg Mele, who faced no primary opposition. Historical results in the district, including the prior incumbent’s 60-plus percent margins, reinforce the structural edge. Low single-digit Republican odds reflect the absence of competitive polling shifts or major developments since the primary. A late national Republican wave, significant candidate-specific controversies, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though such outcomes remain distant from current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Wolumen
$22,311Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic tilt of New Jersey’s 12th District, with a partisan lean around D+13 and Democratic voter registration roughly double that of Republicans, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Bonnie Watson Coleman’s retirement opened a crowded primary that Adam Hamawy won in June with roughly 28 percent in a fragmented field, positioning him to succeed her against Republican Gregg Mele, who faced no primary opposition. Historical results in the district, including the prior incumbent’s 60-plus percent margins, reinforce the structural edge. Low single-digit Republican odds reflect the absence of competitive polling shifts or major developments since the primary. A late national Republican wave, significant candidate-specific controversies, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though such outcomes remain distant from current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$22,311Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic tilt of New Jersey’s 12th District, with a partisan lean around D+13 and Democratic voter registration roughly double that of Republicans, anchors trader consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Bonnie Watson Coleman’s retirement opened a crowded primary that Adam Hamawy won in June with roughly 28 percent in a fragmented field, positioning him to succeed her against Republican Gregg Mele, who faced no primary opposition. Historical results in the district, including the prior incumbent’s 60-plus percent margins, reinforce the structural edge. Low single-digit Republican odds reflect the absence of competitive polling shifts or major developments since the primary. A late national Republican wave, significant candidate-specific controversies, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though such outcomes remain distant from current pricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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