The strong Democratic lean of New Jersey's 12th congressional district, reflected in its partisan voting index and voter registration edge of roughly 42 percent Democratic to 18 percent Republican, drives the 92.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Longtime Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman's retirement opened the seat, but a crowded June 2 Democratic primary produced Army veteran and surgeon Adam Hamawy as the nominee against Republican Gregg Mele, with major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus aligns with the district's historical results and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or recent polling shifts that would signal an upset. Late national political realignments, turnout surprises, or unforeseen developments involving either candidate remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNJ-12 House Election Winner
NJ-12 House Election Winner
$16,918 Wol.
$16,918 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
8%
$16,918 Wol.
$16,918 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,847 Wol.
93%
Republican Party
$5,071 Wol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of New Jersey's 12th congressional district, reflected in its partisan voting index and voter registration edge of roughly 42 percent Democratic to 18 percent Republican, drives the 92.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Longtime Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman's retirement opened the seat, but a crowded June 2 Democratic primary produced Army veteran and surgeon Adam Hamawy as the nominee against Republican Gregg Mele, with major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus aligns with the district's historical results and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or recent polling shifts that would signal an upset. Late national political realignments, turnout surprises, or unforeseen developments involving either candidate remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Wolumen
$16,918Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of New Jersey's 12th congressional district, reflected in its partisan voting index and voter registration edge of roughly 42 percent Democratic to 18 percent Republican, drives the 92.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Longtime Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman's retirement opened the seat, but a crowded June 2 Democratic primary produced Army veteran and surgeon Adam Hamawy as the nominee against Republican Gregg Mele, with major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus aligns with the district's historical results and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or recent polling shifts that would signal an upset. Late national political realignments, turnout surprises, or unforeseen developments involving either candidate remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$16,918Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic lean of New Jersey's 12th congressional district, reflected in its partisan voting index and voter registration edge of roughly 42 percent Democratic to 18 percent Republican, drives the 92.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Longtime Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman's retirement opened the seat, but a crowded June 2 Democratic primary produced Army veteran and surgeon Adam Hamawy as the nominee against Republican Gregg Mele, with major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus aligns with the district's historical results and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or recent polling shifts that would signal an upset. Late national political realignments, turnout surprises, or unforeseen developments involving either candidate remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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