Recent Democratic leads on the generic ballot, averaging 7–12 points in late polls, combined with presidential approval ratings in the low-to-mid 40s, represent the primary drivers of trader expectations for Republican House losses in the November midterms. A slim starting majority near 220 seats leaves limited cushion against historical midterm swings, though aggressive redistricting in several states has narrowed the number of truly competitive districts. Forecasts from multiple models project net Democratic gains in the low-to-mid teens, with outcomes hinging on final turnout among key voting blocs, economic sentiment, and any late developments in foreign policy or domestic issues. The dispersed probabilities across seat ranges reflect uncertainty over whether the environment produces modest erosion or steeper declines for the majority party.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 190 24%
195-199 16%
190-194 14%
205-209 12.3%
$302,669 Wol.
$302,669 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Below 190
24%
190-194
14%
195-199
16%
200-204
12%
205-209
12%
210-214
10%
215-219
7%
220-224
3%
225-229
3%
230+
2%
Below 190 24%
195-199 16%
190-194 14%
205-209 12.3%
$302,669 Wol.
$302,669 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Below 190
$39,336 Wol.
24%
190-194
$15,498 Wol.
14%
195-199
$34,102 Wol.
16%
200-204
$26,766 Wol.
12%
205-209
$41,743 Wol.
12%
210-214
$16,547 Wol.
10%
215-219
$12,130 Wol.
7%
220-224
$59,810 Wol.
3%
225-229
$25,066 Wol.
3%
230+
$31,671 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Democratic leads on the generic ballot, averaging 7–12 points in late polls, combined with presidential approval ratings in the low-to-mid 40s, represent the primary drivers of trader expectations for Republican House losses in the November midterms. A slim starting majority near 220 seats leaves limited cushion against historical midterm swings, though aggressive redistricting in several states has narrowed the number of truly competitive districts. Forecasts from multiple models project net Democratic gains in the low-to-mid teens, with outcomes hinging on final turnout among key voting blocs, economic sentiment, and any late developments in foreign policy or domestic issues. The dispersed probabilities across seat ranges reflect uncertainty over whether the environment produces modest erosion or steeper declines for the majority party.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Wolumen
$302,669Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Democratic leads on the generic ballot, averaging 7–12 points in late polls, combined with presidential approval ratings in the low-to-mid 40s, represent the primary drivers of trader expectations for Republican House losses in the November midterms. A slim starting majority near 220 seats leaves limited cushion against historical midterm swings, though aggressive redistricting in several states has narrowed the number of truly competitive districts. Forecasts from multiple models project net Democratic gains in the low-to-mid teens, with outcomes hinging on final turnout among key voting blocs, economic sentiment, and any late developments in foreign policy or domestic issues. The dispersed probabilities across seat ranges reflect uncertainty over whether the environment produces modest erosion or steeper declines for the majority party.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$302,669Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Democratic leads on the generic ballot, averaging 7–12 points in late polls, combined with presidential approval ratings in the low-to-mid 40s, represent the primary drivers of trader expectations for Republican House losses in the November midterms. A slim starting majority near 220 seats leaves limited cushion against historical midterm swings, though aggressive redistricting in several states has narrowed the number of truly competitive districts. Forecasts from multiple models project net Democratic gains in the low-to-mid teens, with outcomes hinging on final turnout among key voting blocs, economic sentiment, and any late developments in foreign policy or domestic issues. The dispersed probabilities across seat ranges reflect uncertainty over whether the environment produces modest erosion or steeper declines for the majority party.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPowiązane
Czy Partia Republikańska będzie miała 47 lub mniej miejsc w Senacie po wyborach śródokresowych w 2026 roku?
37%
Tak
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?
33%
Czy Partia Demokratyczna będzie kontrolowała Izbę po wyborach śródokresowych w 2026 roku?
94%
Tak
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