Republican prospects for retaining or expanding House seats in the 2026 midterms face standard midterm headwinds against the president's party, compounded by low presidential approval near 43% and a consistent Democratic edge on the generic ballot. Mid-cycle redistricting has added some Republican-leaning districts in states like Texas while Democrats pursued gains elsewhere, yet models project net Democratic advances of roughly 20 seats under current conditions. Special election results and Cook Political Report ratings highlight competitive toss-ups and lean-Democratic districts that keep the seat total uncertain. This produces closely matched probabilities across bins around 190-214 seats, as traders weigh enthusiasm gaps, turnout patterns among working-class and college-educated voters, and limited time for approval recovery before November. Late shifts in national conditions or candidate recruitment could widen the range.