President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China remains the central driver of market positioning. Officials have since clarified that the administration is still assessing implementation options, with senior State Department testimony in March 2026 leaving open whether any program would include full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Technical assessments indicate 24–36 months are typically required to restore full explosive testing readiness, while subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship activities continue without violating the voluntary moratorium observed since 1992. Congressional funding debates, New START expiration dynamics, and any verified low-yield activities by peer competitors could shift timelines and trader consensus on near-term resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAmerykańska próba jądrowa przeprowadzona przez...?
Amerykańska próba jądrowa przeprowadzona przez...?
$767,583 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
30 września 2026
1%
31 grudnia 2026
7%
$767,583 Wol.
30 września 2026
$57,045 Wol.
1%
31 grudnia 2026
$49,728 Wol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China remains the central driver of market positioning. Officials have since clarified that the administration is still assessing implementation options, with senior State Department testimony in March 2026 leaving open whether any program would include full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Technical assessments indicate 24–36 months are typically required to restore full explosive testing readiness, while subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship activities continue without violating the voluntary moratorium observed since 1992. Congressional funding debates, New START expiration dynamics, and any verified low-yield activities by peer competitors could shift timelines and trader consensus on near-term resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Wolumen
$767,583Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China remains the central driver of market positioning. Officials have since clarified that the administration is still assessing implementation options, with senior State Department testimony in March 2026 leaving open whether any program would include full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Technical assessments indicate 24–36 months are typically required to restore full explosive testing readiness, while subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship activities continue without violating the voluntary moratorium observed since 1992. Congressional funding debates, New START expiration dynamics, and any verified low-yield activities by peer competitors could shift timelines and trader consensus on near-term resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$767,583Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China remains the central driver of market positioning. Officials have since clarified that the administration is still assessing implementation options, with senior State Department testimony in March 2026 leaving open whether any program would include full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Technical assessments indicate 24–36 months are typically required to restore full explosive testing readiness, while subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship activities continue without violating the voluntary moratorium observed since 1992. Congressional funding debates, New START expiration dynamics, and any verified low-yield activities by peer competitors could shift timelines and trader consensus on near-term resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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