**NHC guidance and recent intensification drive the 89% market-implied odds for Odalys reaching hurricane strength.** As of the latest advisory, the system sits at 15.1°N 130.1°W with 60-kt sustained winds after steady strengthening amid low shear, ample mid-level moisture, and warm sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. Official forecasts project 65 kt within 12 hours and 75 kt by 24 hours, crossing the 64-kt Saffir-Simpson threshold tonight or tomorrow. Satellite intensity estimates and Dvorak fixes support this near-term trend, while historical analogs for similar eastern Pacific systems in favorable environments reinforce high confidence. Traders weigh the slim risk of delayed intensification or early interaction with Hurricane Polo against the consensus model runs favoring rapid upgrade. Updated NHC discussions and new satellite passes will likely refine these probabilities in coming hours.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTropical Storm Odalys strengthens to a hurricane?
Tropical Storm Odalys strengthens to a hurricane?
93% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
93% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Odalys reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.**NHC guidance and recent intensification drive the 89% market-implied odds for Odalys reaching hurricane strength.** As of the latest advisory, the system sits at 15.1°N 130.1°W with 60-kt sustained winds after steady strengthening amid low shear, ample mid-level moisture, and warm sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. Official forecasts project 65 kt within 12 hours and 75 kt by 24 hours, crossing the 64-kt Saffir-Simpson threshold tonight or tomorrow. Satellite intensity estimates and Dvorak fixes support this near-term trend, while historical analogs for similar eastern Pacific systems in favorable environments reinforce high confidence. Traders weigh the slim risk of delayed intensification or early interaction with Hurricane Polo against the consensus model runs favoring rapid upgrade. Updated NHC discussions and new satellite passes will likely refine these probabilities in coming hours.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Odalys reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,555Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Rozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Odalys reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.**NHC guidance and recent intensification drive the 89% market-implied odds for Odalys reaching hurricane strength.** As of the latest advisory, the system sits at 15.1°N 130.1°W with 60-kt sustained winds after steady strengthening amid low shear, ample mid-level moisture, and warm sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. Official forecasts project 65 kt within 12 hours and 75 kt by 24 hours, crossing the 64-kt Saffir-Simpson threshold tonight or tomorrow. Satellite intensity estimates and Dvorak fixes support this near-term trend, while historical analogs for similar eastern Pacific systems in favorable environments reinforce high confidence. Traders weigh the slim risk of delayed intensification or early interaction with Hurricane Polo against the consensus model runs favoring rapid upgrade. Updated NHC discussions and new satellite passes will likely refine these probabilities in coming hours.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Odalys reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Odalys reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center.
Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
If Odalys does not reach hurricane strength by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No". If the National Hurricane Center has not published any data by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Odalys is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
Wolumen
$2,555Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Rozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...**NHC guidance and recent intensification drive the 89% market-implied odds for Odalys reaching hurricane strength.** As of the latest advisory, the system sits at 15.1°N 130.1°W with 60-kt sustained winds after steady strengthening amid low shear, ample mid-level moisture, and warm sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. Official forecasts project 65 kt within 12 hours and 75 kt by 24 hours, crossing the 64-kt Saffir-Simpson threshold tonight or tomorrow. Satellite intensity estimates and Dvorak fixes support this near-term trend, while historical analogs for similar eastern Pacific systems in favorable environments reinforce high confidence. Traders weigh the slim risk of delayed intensification or early interaction with Hurricane Polo against the consensus model runs favoring rapid upgrade. Updated NHC discussions and new satellite passes will likely refine these probabilities in coming hours.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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