Recent polls ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first round show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a statistical tie for the top two spots, with Augusto Cury consistently third at 6%. This leaves Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema and smaller candidates clustered for fourth, where trader pricing reflects Caiado’s established name recognition and PSD base against Santos’ recent gains among younger and anti-establishment voters. High undecided and blank/null shares near 15% keep positioning fluid, while scheduled debates in late September could shift late deciders and alter the exact ordering below the leaders.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRonaldo Caiado 31%
Renan Santos 26%
Augusto Cury 24%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi 14%

Ronaldo Caiado
43%

Renan Santos
34%

Augusto Cury
24%

Veterinário Wilson Grassi
14%

Flavio Bolsonaro
8%

Zema
8%

Pablo Marçal
6%

Hertz Dias
6%

Samara
6%

Rui Costa Pimenta
5%

Lula
5%

Clariana Barao
5%

Edmilson Costa
5%
Ronaldo Caiado 31%
Renan Santos 26%
Augusto Cury 24%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi 14%

Ronaldo Caiado
43%

Renan Santos
34%

Augusto Cury
24%

Veterinário Wilson Grassi
14%

Flavio Bolsonaro
8%

Zema
8%

Pablo Marçal
6%

Hertz Dias
6%

Samara
6%

Rui Costa Pimenta
5%

Lula
5%

Clariana Barao
5%

Edmilson Costa
5%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado Aberto: Sep 22, 2026, 3:56 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first round show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a statistical tie for the top two spots, with Augusto Cury consistently third at 6%. This leaves Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema and smaller candidates clustered for fourth, where trader pricing reflects Caiado’s established name recognition and PSD base against Santos’ recent gains among younger and anti-establishment voters. High undecided and blank/null shares near 15% keep positioning fluid, while scheduled debates in late September could shift late deciders and alter the exact ordering below the leaders.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado


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