California's 12th congressional district, encompassing much of the East Bay including Oakland and Berkeley, maintains a D+39 Partisan Voting Index that has produced consistent Democratic dominance in recent cycles. Incumbent Lateefah Simon, who took office in 2025, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the June 2 top-two contest, with forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. This structural advantage drives the market's assessment of a Democratic general-election hold on November 3, 2026. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in voter registration or turnout patterns, or an unforeseen disruption such as a late withdrawal or major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa CA-12
Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-12
$37,355 Vol.
$37,355 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
95%
Partido Republicano
5%
$37,355 Vol.
$37,355 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$23,142 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$14,212 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 12th congressional district, encompassing much of the East Bay including Oakland and Berkeley, maintains a D+39 Partisan Voting Index that has produced consistent Democratic dominance in recent cycles. Incumbent Lateefah Simon, who took office in 2025, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the June 2 top-two contest, with forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. This structural advantage drives the market's assessment of a Democratic general-election hold on November 3, 2026. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in voter registration or turnout patterns, or an unforeseen disruption such as a late withdrawal or major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$37,355Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 12th congressional district, encompassing much of the East Bay including Oakland and Berkeley, maintains a D+39 Partisan Voting Index that has produced consistent Democratic dominance in recent cycles. Incumbent Lateefah Simon, who took office in 2025, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the June 2 top-two contest, with forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. This structural advantage drives the market's assessment of a Democratic general-election hold on November 3, 2026. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in voter registration or turnout patterns, or an unforeseen disruption such as a late withdrawal or major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$37,355Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 12th congressional district, encompassing much of the East Bay including Oakland and Berkeley, maintains a D+39 Partisan Voting Index that has produced consistent Democratic dominance in recent cycles. Incumbent Lateefah Simon, who took office in 2025, faces only modest primary opposition ahead of the June 2 top-two contest, with forecasters rating the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. This structural advantage drives the market's assessment of a Democratic general-election hold on November 3, 2026. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in voter registration or turnout patterns, or an unforeseen disruption such as a late withdrawal or major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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