Incumbent Democratic Representative Brad Sherman holds a commanding position in California's 32nd congressional district due to the area's strong Democratic lean, reflected in his 66 percent margin in the 2024 general election and a partisan voting index favoring his party by double digits. With the June 2026 primary approaching and multiple Democratic candidates filing, Sherman's substantial fundraising lead and long-term incumbency provide significant structural advantages in a district encompassing parts of Los Angeles County. Republican nominee Larry Thompson faces limited resources and party infrastructure challenges in this environment. Trader consensus at over 90 percent for a Democratic outcome aligns with historical base rates for similar safe seats, though late primary shifts or unusually high turnout could introduce modest uncertainty before the November general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa CA-32
Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-32
$14,412 Vol.
$14,412 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
93%
Partido Republicano
7%
$14,412 Vol.
$14,412 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$5,871 Vol.
93%
Partido Republicano
$8,541 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Brad Sherman holds a commanding position in California's 32nd congressional district due to the area's strong Democratic lean, reflected in his 66 percent margin in the 2024 general election and a partisan voting index favoring his party by double digits. With the June 2026 primary approaching and multiple Democratic candidates filing, Sherman's substantial fundraising lead and long-term incumbency provide significant structural advantages in a district encompassing parts of Los Angeles County. Republican nominee Larry Thompson faces limited resources and party infrastructure challenges in this environment. Trader consensus at over 90 percent for a Democratic outcome aligns with historical base rates for similar safe seats, though late primary shifts or unusually high turnout could introduce modest uncertainty before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$14,412Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Brad Sherman holds a commanding position in California's 32nd congressional district due to the area's strong Democratic lean, reflected in his 66 percent margin in the 2024 general election and a partisan voting index favoring his party by double digits. With the June 2026 primary approaching and multiple Democratic candidates filing, Sherman's substantial fundraising lead and long-term incumbency provide significant structural advantages in a district encompassing parts of Los Angeles County. Republican nominee Larry Thompson faces limited resources and party infrastructure challenges in this environment. Trader consensus at over 90 percent for a Democratic outcome aligns with historical base rates for similar safe seats, though late primary shifts or unusually high turnout could introduce modest uncertainty before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,412Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Brad Sherman holds a commanding position in California's 32nd congressional district due to the area's strong Democratic lean, reflected in his 66 percent margin in the 2024 general election and a partisan voting index favoring his party by double digits. With the June 2026 primary approaching and multiple Democratic candidates filing, Sherman's substantial fundraising lead and long-term incumbency provide significant structural advantages in a district encompassing parts of Los Angeles County. Republican nominee Larry Thompson faces limited resources and party infrastructure challenges in this environment. Trader consensus at over 90 percent for a Democratic outcome aligns with historical base rates for similar safe seats, though late primary shifts or unusually high turnout could introduce modest uncertainty before the November general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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