Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in the NY-18 race due to his established record in the mid-Hudson Valley district, which Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate as Solid Democratic. Ryan won reelection comfortably in 2024 and faces no primary opposition, while Republican challenger Jacqueline Auringer, a political newcomer and businesswoman, advanced unopposed but trails significantly in limited polling and fundraising. The district's partisan lean and Ryan's financial edge reinforce trader consensus on his high implied probability of victory on November 3. Auringer has secured endorsements from state Republicans and launched attacks on Ryan's record, with a scheduled October debate offering one venue for momentum shifts, though major national political changes or unforeseen developments would be required to alter the current outlook.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$42,918 Vol.
$42,918 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Pat Ryan (D)
93%
Jacqueline Auringer (R)
7%
$42,918 Vol.
$42,918 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Pat Ryan (D)
$33,541 Vol.
93%
Jacqueline Auringer (R)
$9,377 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in the NY-18 race due to his established record in the mid-Hudson Valley district, which Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate as Solid Democratic. Ryan won reelection comfortably in 2024 and faces no primary opposition, while Republican challenger Jacqueline Auringer, a political newcomer and businesswoman, advanced unopposed but trails significantly in limited polling and fundraising. The district's partisan lean and Ryan's financial edge reinforce trader consensus on his high implied probability of victory on November 3. Auringer has secured endorsements from state Republicans and launched attacks on Ryan's record, with a scheduled October debate offering one venue for momentum shifts, though major national political changes or unforeseen developments would be required to alter the current outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$42,918Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in the NY-18 race due to his established record in the mid-Hudson Valley district, which Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate as Solid Democratic. Ryan won reelection comfortably in 2024 and faces no primary opposition, while Republican challenger Jacqueline Auringer, a political newcomer and businesswoman, advanced unopposed but trails significantly in limited polling and fundraising. The district's partisan lean and Ryan's financial edge reinforce trader consensus on his high implied probability of victory on November 3. Auringer has secured endorsements from state Republicans and launched attacks on Ryan's record, with a scheduled October debate offering one venue for momentum shifts, though major national political changes or unforeseen developments would be required to alter the current outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,918Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in the NY-18 race due to his established record in the mid-Hudson Valley district, which Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate as Solid Democratic. Ryan won reelection comfortably in 2024 and faces no primary opposition, while Republican challenger Jacqueline Auringer, a political newcomer and businesswoman, advanced unopposed but trails significantly in limited polling and fundraising. The district's partisan lean and Ryan's financial edge reinforce trader consensus on his high implied probability of victory on November 3. Auringer has secured endorsements from state Republicans and launched attacks on Ryan's record, with a scheduled October debate offering one venue for momentum shifts, though major national political changes or unforeseen developments would be required to alter the current outlook.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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