Texas's 20th congressional district, anchored in urban San Antonio with a majority-Hispanic electorate and Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+16, has consistently delivered Democratic margins exceeding 15 points in recent cycles, including strong showings for Kamala Harris and state-level Democrats in 2024. Incumbent Joaquin Castro secured renomination in the March 2026 Democratic primary with over 88 percent support and faces a Republican challenger with limited fundraising and visibility. These structural factors, combined with the absence of redistricting changes or notable controversies in the district, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal of long-term voting patterns or a major late-cycle disruption such as a candidate withdrawal or national political shock.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Casa TX-20
Vencedor da eleição para a Casa TX-20
$27,061 Vol.
$27,061 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
95%
Partido Republicano
6%
$27,061 Vol.
$27,061 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$12,368 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$14,693 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 20th congressional district, anchored in urban San Antonio with a majority-Hispanic electorate and Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+16, has consistently delivered Democratic margins exceeding 15 points in recent cycles, including strong showings for Kamala Harris and state-level Democrats in 2024. Incumbent Joaquin Castro secured renomination in the March 2026 Democratic primary with over 88 percent support and faces a Republican challenger with limited fundraising and visibility. These structural factors, combined with the absence of redistricting changes or notable controversies in the district, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal of long-term voting patterns or a major late-cycle disruption such as a candidate withdrawal or national political shock.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$27,061Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 20th congressional district, anchored in urban San Antonio with a majority-Hispanic electorate and Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+16, has consistently delivered Democratic margins exceeding 15 points in recent cycles, including strong showings for Kamala Harris and state-level Democrats in 2024. Incumbent Joaquin Castro secured renomination in the March 2026 Democratic primary with over 88 percent support and faces a Republican challenger with limited fundraising and visibility. These structural factors, combined with the absence of redistricting changes or notable controversies in the district, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal of long-term voting patterns or a major late-cycle disruption such as a candidate withdrawal or national political shock.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$27,061Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 20th congressional district, anchored in urban San Antonio with a majority-Hispanic electorate and Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+16, has consistently delivered Democratic margins exceeding 15 points in recent cycles, including strong showings for Kamala Harris and state-level Democrats in 2024. Incumbent Joaquin Castro secured renomination in the March 2026 Democratic primary with over 88 percent support and faces a Republican challenger with limited fundraising and visibility. These structural factors, combined with the absence of redistricting changes or notable controversies in the district, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94.5 percent. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal of long-term voting patterns or a major late-cycle disruption such as a candidate withdrawal or national political shock.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions