California's 38th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+10 and consistent ratings as a solid or safe seat by major forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Linda Sánchez has held the seat since 2013, winning her most recent general election by nearly 20 points amid suburban Los Angeles and Orange County demographics that include significant Hispanic and Asian voter blocs. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 further reinforced the party's structural edge in registration and historical voting patterns. With the June primary approaching and the November general election still months away, trader consensus at 95 percent for the Democratic outcome aligns with these entrenched factors. Shifts could occur only through major candidate withdrawals, unexpected turnout swings, or late national political developments that override local dynamics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa CA-38
Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-38
$58,518 Vol.
$58,518 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
95%
Partido Republicano
2%
$58,518 Vol.
$58,518 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$29,177 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$29,341 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 38th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+10 and consistent ratings as a solid or safe seat by major forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Linda Sánchez has held the seat since 2013, winning her most recent general election by nearly 20 points amid suburban Los Angeles and Orange County demographics that include significant Hispanic and Asian voter blocs. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 further reinforced the party's structural edge in registration and historical voting patterns. With the June primary approaching and the November general election still months away, trader consensus at 95 percent for the Democratic outcome aligns with these entrenched factors. Shifts could occur only through major candidate withdrawals, unexpected turnout swings, or late national political developments that override local dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$58,518Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 38th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+10 and consistent ratings as a solid or safe seat by major forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Linda Sánchez has held the seat since 2013, winning her most recent general election by nearly 20 points amid suburban Los Angeles and Orange County demographics that include significant Hispanic and Asian voter blocs. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 further reinforced the party's structural edge in registration and historical voting patterns. With the June primary approaching and the November general election still months away, trader consensus at 95 percent for the Democratic outcome aligns with these entrenched factors. Shifts could occur only through major candidate withdrawals, unexpected turnout swings, or late national political developments that override local dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$58,518Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 38th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+10 and consistent ratings as a solid or safe seat by major forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Linda Sánchez has held the seat since 2013, winning her most recent general election by nearly 20 points amid suburban Los Angeles and Orange County demographics that include significant Hispanic and Asian voter blocs. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 further reinforced the party's structural edge in registration and historical voting patterns. With the June primary approaching and the November general election still months away, trader consensus at 95 percent for the Democratic outcome aligns with these entrenched factors. Shifts could occur only through major candidate withdrawals, unexpected turnout swings, or late national political developments that override local dynamics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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