**Otzma Yehudit and Noam face a tight decision on a joint list ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset elections, with final candidate lists due September 8.** Noam, holding one seat under Avi Maoz, rebranded as “Noam for Israel” and launched an independent campaign with its own slate in late July, yet polls near or below the 3.25% threshold. Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and polling at 6–10 seats independently, has prioritized its distinct base among Likud and Shas voters and explicitly rejected reuniting with Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party. Netanyahu has pressed broader right-wing unity to prevent wasted votes below the threshold, but recent talks emphasize other partners such as Ofer Winter’s new party rather than a specific Otzma-Noam pairing. Historical precedent exists from their 2021 joint run, yet Noam’s recent independence and Otzma’s emphasis on separate identity create the current balance. Developments that could shift probabilities include explicit negotiations or a Netanyahu-brokered agreement before the deadline (favoring Yes) versus continued independent positioning or alternative alliances (favoring No). Trader consensus at 51% Yes reflects this narrow uncertainty around threshold strategy and bloc arithmetic.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
0% chance
NOVO
NOVO
7 set 2026
Sim
0% chance
NOVO
NOVO
7 set 2026
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Otzma Yehudit and Noam face a tight decision on a joint list ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset elections, with final candidate lists due September 8.** Noam, holding one seat under Avi Maoz, rebranded as “Noam for Israel” and launched an independent campaign with its own slate in late July, yet polls near or below the 3.25% threshold. Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and polling at 6–10 seats independently, has prioritized its distinct base among Likud and Shas voters and explicitly rejected reuniting with Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party.
Netanyahu has pressed broader right-wing unity to prevent wasted votes below the threshold, but recent talks emphasize other partners such as Ofer Winter’s new party rather than a specific Otzma-Noam pairing. Historical precedent exists from their 2021 joint run, yet Noam’s recent independence and Otzma’s emphasis on separate identity create the current balance. Developments that could shift probabilities include explicit negotiations or a Netanyahu-brokered agreement before the deadline (favoring Yes) versus continued independent positioning or alternative alliances (favoring No). Trader consensus at 51% Yes reflects this narrow uncertainty around threshold strategy and bloc arithmetic.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$30Data de Término
7 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Otzma Yehudit and Noam face a tight decision on a joint list ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset elections, with final candidate lists due September 8.** Noam, holding one seat under Avi Maoz, rebranded as “Noam for Israel” and launched an independent campaign with its own slate in late July, yet polls near or below the 3.25% threshold. Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and polling at 6–10 seats independently, has prioritized its distinct base among Likud and Shas voters and explicitly rejected reuniting with Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party.
Netanyahu has pressed broader right-wing unity to prevent wasted votes below the threshold, but recent talks emphasize other partners such as Ofer Winter’s new party rather than a specific Otzma-Noam pairing. Historical precedent exists from their 2021 joint run, yet Noam’s recent independence and Otzma’s emphasis on separate identity create the current balance. Developments that could shift probabilities include explicit negotiations or a Netanyahu-brokered agreement before the deadline (favoring Yes) versus continued independent positioning or alternative alliances (favoring No). Trader consensus at 51% Yes reflects this narrow uncertainty around threshold strategy and bloc arithmetic.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Volume
$30Data de Término
7 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Otzma Yehudit and Noam face a tight decision on a joint list ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset elections, with final candidate lists due September 8.** Noam, holding one seat under Avi Maoz, rebranded as “Noam for Israel” and launched an independent campaign with its own slate in late July, yet polls near or below the 3.25% threshold. Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and polling at 6–10 seats independently, has prioritized its distinct base among Likud and Shas voters and explicitly rejected reuniting with Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party. Netanyahu has pressed broader right-wing unity to prevent wasted votes below the threshold, but recent talks emphasize other partners such as Ofer Winter’s new party rather than a specific Otzma-Noam pairing. Historical precedent exists from their 2021 joint run, yet Noam’s recent independence and Otzma’s emphasis on separate identity create the current balance. Developments that could shift probabilities include explicit negotiations or a Netanyahu-brokered agreement before the deadline (favoring Yes) versus continued independent positioning or alternative alliances (favoring No). Trader consensus at 51% Yes reflects this narrow uncertainty around threshold strategy and bloc arithmetic.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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