**Traders assign a 70.5% probability to “No” for Likud and the Religious Zionist Party (RZP, led by Bezalel Smotrich) forming a joint electoral list ahead of Israel’s October 27, 2026, Knesset election.** Recent polling and party activity show RZP operating independently. It finalized its own primary slate in late July, with Smotrich in the top slot and other MKs securing prominent positions. Multiple late-August surveys place RZP near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold, largely due to vote-splitting from Ofer Winter’s newly launched People of Israel party, which targets overlapping religious-nationalist and settlement-supporting voters. Netanyahu has publicly urged unity on the right, specifically calling for Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben-Gvir) and RZP to merge or coordinate to avoid wasted votes. Ben-Gvir has signaled opposition to such a step with RZP. Parallel reports indicate Smotrich exploring a possible joint ticket with former Likud MK Moshe Feiglin rather than with Likud itself. Likud completed its own primaries and slate separately, with no announced technical merger or shared list involving RZP. These developments—distinct party lists, threshold concerns driving alternative alliance talks, and the absence of any Likud-RZP joint framework—align with the current trader consensus favoring separate runs. Late-breaking negotiations or poll shifts could still alter the picture before the September deadline for final lists.