The heavily Democratic lean of Texas's 18th congressional district, reinforced by redistricting that consolidated urban Houston voters, positions the Democratic nominee as the clear frontrunner for the November 2026 general election. Recent University of Houston polling in the Democratic primary runoff shows Christian Menefee leading Al Green by double digits among likely voters, consistent with earlier surveys that highlighted strong name recognition and favorable views for both candidates in this safe seat. With a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating exceeding D+29 and minimal Republican opposition expected, traders assign the Democratic Party an 80.6% implied probability of victory while pricing the Republican challenger at 25.4%. The primary winner faces no structural barriers in the general, where historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive cross-party dynamics have kept odds stable in recent weeks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Casa TX-18
Vencedor da eleição para a Casa TX-18
NOVO
NOVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
79%
Partido Republicano
22%
NOVO
NOVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$0 Vol.
79%
Partido Republicano
$0 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic lean of Texas's 18th congressional district, reinforced by redistricting that consolidated urban Houston voters, positions the Democratic nominee as the clear frontrunner for the November 2026 general election. Recent University of Houston polling in the Democratic primary runoff shows Christian Menefee leading Al Green by double digits among likely voters, consistent with earlier surveys that highlighted strong name recognition and favorable views for both candidates in this safe seat. With a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating exceeding D+29 and minimal Republican opposition expected, traders assign the Democratic Party an 80.6% implied probability of victory while pricing the Republican challenger at 25.4%. The primary winner faces no structural barriers in the general, where historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive cross-party dynamics have kept odds stable in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic lean of Texas's 18th congressional district, reinforced by redistricting that consolidated urban Houston voters, positions the Democratic nominee as the clear frontrunner for the November 2026 general election. Recent University of Houston polling in the Democratic primary runoff shows Christian Menefee leading Al Green by double digits among likely voters, consistent with earlier surveys that highlighted strong name recognition and favorable views for both candidates in this safe seat. With a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating exceeding D+29 and minimal Republican opposition expected, traders assign the Democratic Party an 80.6% implied probability of victory while pricing the Republican challenger at 25.4%. The primary winner faces no structural barriers in the general, where historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive cross-party dynamics have kept odds stable in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic lean of Texas's 18th congressional district, reinforced by redistricting that consolidated urban Houston voters, positions the Democratic nominee as the clear frontrunner for the November 2026 general election. Recent University of Houston polling in the Democratic primary runoff shows Christian Menefee leading Al Green by double digits among likely voters, consistent with earlier surveys that highlighted strong name recognition and favorable views for both candidates in this safe seat. With a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating exceeding D+29 and minimal Republican opposition expected, traders assign the Democratic Party an 80.6% implied probability of victory while pricing the Republican challenger at 25.4%. The primary winner faces no structural barriers in the general, where historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive cross-party dynamics have kept odds stable in recent weeks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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