Texas’s 18th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat centered in Houston, where the party has held the office continuously for decades. Recent redistricting merged portions of an adjacent district, setting up a May 26 Democratic primary runoff between incumbents Al Green and Christian Menefee, the latter of whom won the January 2026 special election to complete the prior term. Republican nominee Ronald Whitfield advanced from his primary but faces structural headwinds in a constituency that delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to the Democratic nominee prevailing in November, consistent with historical base rates for this district and the absence of any major partisan realignment since the last election.