Recent redistricting in Florida, enacted in April 2026 and upheld by courts for the November general election, shifted the 14th district’s partisan voting index to R+4 and prompted forecasters to rate the seat Lean Republican. Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor faces a primary challenge on August 18, while multiple Republicans, including former state representative Mike Beltran, compete in their primary the same day. These factors, combined with the broader statewide map favoring Republicans, have narrowed historical Democratic advantages and produced closely matched trader probabilities. Primary outcomes, candidate fundraising, and national midterm dynamics through fall could widen or close the gap before November 3.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa FL-14
Vencedor da eleição da casa FL-14
$21,053 Vol.
$21,053 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
51%
Partido Democrata
51%
$21,053 Vol.
$21,053 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$11,851 Vol.
51%
Partido Democrata
$9,202 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent redistricting in Florida, enacted in April 2026 and upheld by courts for the November general election, shifted the 14th district’s partisan voting index to R+4 and prompted forecasters to rate the seat Lean Republican. Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor faces a primary challenge on August 18, while multiple Republicans, including former state representative Mike Beltran, compete in their primary the same day. These factors, combined with the broader statewide map favoring Republicans, have narrowed historical Democratic advantages and produced closely matched trader probabilities. Primary outcomes, candidate fundraising, and national midterm dynamics through fall could widen or close the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volume
$21,053Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent redistricting in Florida, enacted in April 2026 and upheld by courts for the November general election, shifted the 14th district’s partisan voting index to R+4 and prompted forecasters to rate the seat Lean Republican. Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor faces a primary challenge on August 18, while multiple Republicans, including former state representative Mike Beltran, compete in their primary the same day. These factors, combined with the broader statewide map favoring Republicans, have narrowed historical Democratic advantages and produced closely matched trader probabilities. Primary outcomes, candidate fundraising, and national midterm dynamics through fall could widen or close the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,053Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent redistricting in Florida, enacted in April 2026 and upheld by courts for the November general election, shifted the 14th district’s partisan voting index to R+4 and prompted forecasters to rate the seat Lean Republican. Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor faces a primary challenge on August 18, while multiple Republicans, including former state representative Mike Beltran, compete in their primary the same day. These factors, combined with the broader statewide map favoring Republicans, have narrowed historical Democratic advantages and produced closely matched trader probabilities. Primary outcomes, candidate fundraising, and national midterm dynamics through fall could widen or close the gap before November 3.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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