Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a strong position in California’s 23rd congressional district, a seat rated Solid Republican or Safe Republican by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The district carries an R+9 partisan voting index and delivered Obernolte roughly 60 percent of the vote in 2024. With the June 2 primary still ahead and no major Democratic challengers generating significant traction or outside spending, trader consensus assigns the Republican nominee an 85.5 percent implied probability. Forecasters highlight the incumbent’s fundraising edge and the absence of recent redistricting or polling shifts that could open a competitive path for Democrats before the November 3 general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa CA-23
Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-23
$10,284 Vol.
$10,284 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
86%
Partido Democrata
14%
$10,284 Vol.
$10,284 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$7,220 Vol.
86%
Partido Democrata
$3,065 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a strong position in California’s 23rd congressional district, a seat rated Solid Republican or Safe Republican by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The district carries an R+9 partisan voting index and delivered Obernolte roughly 60 percent of the vote in 2024. With the June 2 primary still ahead and no major Democratic challengers generating significant traction or outside spending, trader consensus assigns the Republican nominee an 85.5 percent implied probability. Forecasters highlight the incumbent’s fundraising edge and the absence of recent redistricting or polling shifts that could open a competitive path for Democrats before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$10,284Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a strong position in California’s 23rd congressional district, a seat rated Solid Republican or Safe Republican by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The district carries an R+9 partisan voting index and delivered Obernolte roughly 60 percent of the vote in 2024. With the June 2 primary still ahead and no major Democratic challengers generating significant traction or outside spending, trader consensus assigns the Republican nominee an 85.5 percent implied probability. Forecasters highlight the incumbent’s fundraising edge and the absence of recent redistricting or polling shifts that could open a competitive path for Democrats before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$10,284Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a strong position in California’s 23rd congressional district, a seat rated Solid Republican or Safe Republican by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The district carries an R+9 partisan voting index and delivered Obernolte roughly 60 percent of the vote in 2024. With the June 2 primary still ahead and no major Democratic challengers generating significant traction or outside spending, trader consensus assigns the Republican nominee an 85.5 percent implied probability. Forecasters highlight the incumbent’s fundraising edge and the absence of recent redistricting or polling shifts that could open a competitive path for Democrats before the November 3 general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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