Incumbent Republican Mike Lawler holds New York’s 17th congressional district, a Hudson Valley seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+1 that rates as a toss-up. The Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, features frontrunner Cait Conley ahead in recent polling and prediction markets, positioning the eventual nominee to challenge Lawler in November. Traders assign Democrats a 69.5% implied probability of winning the general election, reflecting the district’s narrow partisan balance, Lawler’s 2024 margin near 6 points, and historical midterm dynamics that often favor the opposition party. Fundraising totals and early head-to-head surveys show competitive positioning, with outcome hinging on primary consolidation and turnout in this battleground.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Câmara de NY-17
Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara de NY-17
NOVO
NOVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
70%
Partido Republicano
48%
NOVO
NOVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$304 Vol.
70%
Partido Republicano
$178 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Lawler holds New York’s 17th congressional district, a Hudson Valley seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+1 that rates as a toss-up. The Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, features frontrunner Cait Conley ahead in recent polling and prediction markets, positioning the eventual nominee to challenge Lawler in November. Traders assign Democrats a 69.5% implied probability of winning the general election, reflecting the district’s narrow partisan balance, Lawler’s 2024 margin near 6 points, and historical midterm dynamics that often favor the opposition party. Fundraising totals and early head-to-head surveys show competitive positioning, with outcome hinging on primary consolidation and turnout in this battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$481Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Lawler holds New York’s 17th congressional district, a Hudson Valley seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+1 that rates as a toss-up. The Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, features frontrunner Cait Conley ahead in recent polling and prediction markets, positioning the eventual nominee to challenge Lawler in November. Traders assign Democrats a 69.5% implied probability of winning the general election, reflecting the district’s narrow partisan balance, Lawler’s 2024 margin near 6 points, and historical midterm dynamics that often favor the opposition party. Fundraising totals and early head-to-head surveys show competitive positioning, with outcome hinging on primary consolidation and turnout in this battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$481Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Lawler holds New York’s 17th congressional district, a Hudson Valley seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+1 that rates as a toss-up. The Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, features frontrunner Cait Conley ahead in recent polling and prediction markets, positioning the eventual nominee to challenge Lawler in November. Traders assign Democrats a 69.5% implied probability of winning the general election, reflecting the district’s narrow partisan balance, Lawler’s 2024 margin near 6 points, and historical midterm dynamics that often favor the opposition party. Fundraising totals and early head-to-head surveys show competitive positioning, with outcome hinging on primary consolidation and turnout in this battleground.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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