Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as a Solid or Safe Democratic seat by major forecasters. The open seat following incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's decision not to seek reelection in 2026 has not altered this positioning, as his endorsed successor, Patty Garcia, secured the Democratic nomination in the uncontested March 2026 primary. Independent candidates, including some Democrats, are expected on the November general election ballot, yet historical voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure in the district sustain trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A major shift would require unusual turnout changes or a highly effective independent campaign, outcomes that have not materialized in comparable safe seats.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIL-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
IL-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
$52,331 Vol.
$52,331 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
95%
Partido Republicano
3%
$52,331 Vol.
$52,331 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$37,684 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$14,647 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as a Solid or Safe Democratic seat by major forecasters. The open seat following incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's decision not to seek reelection in 2026 has not altered this positioning, as his endorsed successor, Patty Garcia, secured the Democratic nomination in the uncontested March 2026 primary. Independent candidates, including some Democrats, are expected on the November general election ballot, yet historical voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure in the district sustain trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A major shift would require unusual turnout changes or a highly effective independent campaign, outcomes that have not materialized in comparable safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$52,331Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as a Solid or Safe Democratic seat by major forecasters. The open seat following incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's decision not to seek reelection in 2026 has not altered this positioning, as his endorsed successor, Patty Garcia, secured the Democratic nomination in the uncontested March 2026 primary. Independent candidates, including some Democrats, are expected on the November general election ballot, yet historical voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure in the district sustain trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A major shift would require unusual turnout changes or a highly effective independent campaign, outcomes that have not materialized in comparable safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$52,331Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as a Solid or Safe Democratic seat by major forecasters. The open seat following incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's decision not to seek reelection in 2026 has not altered this positioning, as his endorsed successor, Patty Garcia, secured the Democratic nomination in the uncontested March 2026 primary. Independent candidates, including some Democrats, are expected on the November general election ballot, yet historical voting patterns and limited Republican infrastructure in the district sustain trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A major shift would require unusual turnout changes or a highly effective independent campaign, outcomes that have not materialized in comparable safe seats.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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