The IL-04 district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+17 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Retiring incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's late maneuver cleared the path for his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, to secure the nomination without primary opposition after the March 2026 primaries, preserving party continuity in the southwest Chicago and suburban Cook County area. Republicans face structural barriers in a district that has not elected a GOP member in decades. Factors that could narrow the gap include major candidate scandals, unusually low Democratic turnout, or a national political shift large enough to overcome the district's baseline leanings before the November 2026 general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIL-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
IL-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
$52,331 Vol.
$52,331 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
95%
Partido Republicano
3%
$52,331 Vol.
$52,331 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$37,684 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$14,647 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The IL-04 district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+17 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Retiring incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's late maneuver cleared the path for his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, to secure the nomination without primary opposition after the March 2026 primaries, preserving party continuity in the southwest Chicago and suburban Cook County area. Republicans face structural barriers in a district that has not elected a GOP member in decades. Factors that could narrow the gap include major candidate scandals, unusually low Democratic turnout, or a national political shift large enough to overcome the district's baseline leanings before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$52,331Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The IL-04 district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+17 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Retiring incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's late maneuver cleared the path for his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, to secure the nomination without primary opposition after the March 2026 primaries, preserving party continuity in the southwest Chicago and suburban Cook County area. Republicans face structural barriers in a district that has not elected a GOP member in decades. Factors that could narrow the gap include major candidate scandals, unusually low Democratic turnout, or a national political shift large enough to overcome the district's baseline leanings before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$52,331Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The IL-04 district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+17 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for the party in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Retiring incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's late maneuver cleared the path for his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, to secure the nomination without primary opposition after the March 2026 primaries, preserving party continuity in the southwest Chicago and suburban Cook County area. Republicans face structural barriers in a district that has not elected a GOP member in decades. Factors that could narrow the gap include major candidate scandals, unusually low Democratic turnout, or a national political shift large enough to overcome the district's baseline leanings before the November 2026 general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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