The Illinois 5th congressional district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+19 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for the incumbent, underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the Democratic nominee. Mike Quigley secured his party's nomination with a comfortable primary victory and faces a Republican challenger in a seat rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters, with fundraising and voter demographics in a highly educated urban and suburban area reinforcing the position. Recent primary results have clarified the general election matchup without introducing unexpected competitiveness. While a national political shift, candidate withdrawal, or unforeseen scandal could narrow the gap before November 2026, structural factors and historical voting patterns have kept alternative outcomes at low implied probabilities in trader assessments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIL-05 Vencedor da eleição da casa
IL-05 Vencedor da eleição da casa
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
95%
Partido Republicano
6%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$7,806 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$1,548 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 5th congressional district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+19 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for the incumbent, underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the Democratic nominee. Mike Quigley secured his party's nomination with a comfortable primary victory and faces a Republican challenger in a seat rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters, with fundraising and voter demographics in a highly educated urban and suburban area reinforcing the position. Recent primary results have clarified the general election matchup without introducing unexpected competitiveness. While a national political shift, candidate withdrawal, or unforeseen scandal could narrow the gap before November 2026, structural factors and historical voting patterns have kept alternative outcomes at low implied probabilities in trader assessments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$9,354Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 5th congressional district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+19 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for the incumbent, underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the Democratic nominee. Mike Quigley secured his party's nomination with a comfortable primary victory and faces a Republican challenger in a seat rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters, with fundraising and voter demographics in a highly educated urban and suburban area reinforcing the position. Recent primary results have clarified the general election matchup without introducing unexpected competitiveness. While a national political shift, candidate withdrawal, or unforeseen scandal could narrow the gap before November 2026, structural factors and historical voting patterns have kept alternative outcomes at low implied probabilities in trader assessments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$9,354Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 5th congressional district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+19 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for the incumbent, underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the Democratic nominee. Mike Quigley secured his party's nomination with a comfortable primary victory and faces a Republican challenger in a seat rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters, with fundraising and voter demographics in a highly educated urban and suburban area reinforcing the position. Recent primary results have clarified the general election matchup without introducing unexpected competitiveness. While a national political shift, candidate withdrawal, or unforeseen scandal could narrow the gap before November 2026, structural factors and historical voting patterns have kept alternative outcomes at low implied probabilities in trader assessments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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