The IL-09 district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 partisan rating and consistent results in prior cycles, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. Longtime Rep. Jan Schakowsky's retirement created an open seat, but the March 2026 primary produced a clear winner in Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, who secured the nomination in a crowded field with endorsements from party leaders and outpaced challengers focused on generational or progressive appeals. Republican nominee John Elleson emerged from a low-turnout primary but faces structural barriers in a district encompassing progressive Chicago neighborhoods and suburban areas with high Democratic registration. An independent candidate adds minor ballot complexity, yet historical voting patterns and Illinois's broader 14-3 Democratic House delegation favor the Democratic outcome. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue affecting the nominee, or an unanticipated national Republican surge could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in this environment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIL-09 Vencedor da eleição da casa
IL-09 Vencedor da eleição da casa
$23,266 Vol.
$23,266 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
94%
Partido Republicano
6%
$23,266 Vol.
$23,266 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$16,765 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$6,502 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The IL-09 district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 partisan rating and consistent results in prior cycles, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. Longtime Rep. Jan Schakowsky's retirement created an open seat, but the March 2026 primary produced a clear winner in Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, who secured the nomination in a crowded field with endorsements from party leaders and outpaced challengers focused on generational or progressive appeals. Republican nominee John Elleson emerged from a low-turnout primary but faces structural barriers in a district encompassing progressive Chicago neighborhoods and suburban areas with high Democratic registration. An independent candidate adds minor ballot complexity, yet historical voting patterns and Illinois's broader 14-3 Democratic House delegation favor the Democratic outcome. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue affecting the nominee, or an unanticipated national Republican surge could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$23,266Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The IL-09 district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 partisan rating and consistent results in prior cycles, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. Longtime Rep. Jan Schakowsky's retirement created an open seat, but the March 2026 primary produced a clear winner in Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, who secured the nomination in a crowded field with endorsements from party leaders and outpaced challengers focused on generational or progressive appeals. Republican nominee John Elleson emerged from a low-turnout primary but faces structural barriers in a district encompassing progressive Chicago neighborhoods and suburban areas with high Democratic registration. An independent candidate adds minor ballot complexity, yet historical voting patterns and Illinois's broader 14-3 Democratic House delegation favor the Democratic outcome. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue affecting the nominee, or an unanticipated national Republican surge could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$23,266Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The IL-09 district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 partisan rating and consistent results in prior cycles, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for the Democratic nominee. Longtime Rep. Jan Schakowsky's retirement created an open seat, but the March 2026 primary produced a clear winner in Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, who secured the nomination in a crowded field with endorsements from party leaders and outpaced challengers focused on generational or progressive appeals. Republican nominee John Elleson emerged from a low-turnout primary but faces structural barriers in a district encompassing progressive Chicago neighborhoods and suburban areas with high Democratic registration. An independent candidate adds minor ballot complexity, yet historical voting patterns and Illinois's broader 14-3 Democratic House delegation favor the Democratic outcome. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue affecting the nominee, or an unanticipated national Republican surge could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in this environment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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