James Walkinshaw secured the Democratic nomination for Virginia’s 11th congressional district after winning the September 2025 special election to succeed the late Gerry Connolly, establishing incumbency ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus around his 97.4% implied probability. Walkinshaw maintains a substantial fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over Republican nominee Arthur Purves, whose limited resources and uncontested primary path have not altered the race’s fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected national political shift could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical patterns in this suburban Northern Virginia seat indicate limited realistic pathways for the Republican challenger.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Casa VA-11
Vencedor da eleição para a Casa VA-11
$28,273 Vol.
$28,273 Vol.
2 nov 2026
James Walkinshaw (D)
97%
Arthur Purves (R)
<1%
$28,273 Vol.
$28,273 Vol.
2 nov 2026
James Walkinshaw (D)
$16,650 Vol.
97%
Arthur Purves (R)
$11,623 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).James Walkinshaw secured the Democratic nomination for Virginia’s 11th congressional district after winning the September 2025 special election to succeed the late Gerry Connolly, establishing incumbency ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus around his 97.4% implied probability. Walkinshaw maintains a substantial fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over Republican nominee Arthur Purves, whose limited resources and uncontested primary path have not altered the race’s fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected national political shift could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical patterns in this suburban Northern Virginia seat indicate limited realistic pathways for the Republican challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$28,273Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).James Walkinshaw secured the Democratic nomination for Virginia’s 11th congressional district after winning the September 2025 special election to succeed the late Gerry Connolly, establishing incumbency ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus around his 97.4% implied probability. Walkinshaw maintains a substantial fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over Republican nominee Arthur Purves, whose limited resources and uncontested primary path have not altered the race’s fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected national political shift could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical patterns in this suburban Northern Virginia seat indicate limited realistic pathways for the Republican challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,273Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...James Walkinshaw secured the Democratic nomination for Virginia’s 11th congressional district after winning the September 2025 special election to succeed the late Gerry Connolly, establishing incumbency ahead of the November 3, 2026, general election. The district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent “Solid Democratic” or “Safe Democratic” ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus around his 97.4% implied probability. Walkinshaw maintains a substantial fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over Republican nominee Arthur Purves, whose limited resources and uncontested primary path have not altered the race’s fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unexpected national political shift could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical patterns in this suburban Northern Virginia seat indicate limited realistic pathways for the Republican challenger.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions