The California 31st congressional district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+8 to D+10 and voter registration edge favoring Democrats by roughly 18 points, underpins the current trader consensus. Incumbent Gil Cisneros secured the top-two primary spot in June 2026 with over 60 percent of the vote against Republican challengers Eric Ching and Erskine Levi, advancing to face Ching in the November general election. The district's demographics, including a large Hispanic population and consistent Democratic margins in recent statewide and presidential contests, further reinforce this positioning. Race ratings from multiple outlets classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Realistic shifts in odds would require events such as a major scandal involving the incumbent, an unusually strong national Republican wave altering turnout, or significant changes in candidate resources or messaging within the remaining campaign window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCA-31 House Election Winner
CA-31 House Election Winner
$17,910 Vol.
$17,910 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$17,910 Vol.
$17,910 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$7,829 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$10,081 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The California 31st congressional district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+8 to D+10 and voter registration edge favoring Democrats by roughly 18 points, underpins the current trader consensus. Incumbent Gil Cisneros secured the top-two primary spot in June 2026 with over 60 percent of the vote against Republican challengers Eric Ching and Erskine Levi, advancing to face Ching in the November general election. The district's demographics, including a large Hispanic population and consistent Democratic margins in recent statewide and presidential contests, further reinforce this positioning. Race ratings from multiple outlets classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Realistic shifts in odds would require events such as a major scandal involving the incumbent, an unusually strong national Republican wave altering turnout, or significant changes in candidate resources or messaging within the remaining campaign window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$17,910Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The California 31st congressional district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+8 to D+10 and voter registration edge favoring Democrats by roughly 18 points, underpins the current trader consensus. Incumbent Gil Cisneros secured the top-two primary spot in June 2026 with over 60 percent of the vote against Republican challengers Eric Ching and Erskine Levi, advancing to face Ching in the November general election. The district's demographics, including a large Hispanic population and consistent Democratic margins in recent statewide and presidential contests, further reinforce this positioning. Race ratings from multiple outlets classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Realistic shifts in odds would require events such as a major scandal involving the incumbent, an unusually strong national Republican wave altering turnout, or significant changes in candidate resources or messaging within the remaining campaign window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,910Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The California 31st congressional district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+8 to D+10 and voter registration edge favoring Democrats by roughly 18 points, underpins the current trader consensus. Incumbent Gil Cisneros secured the top-two primary spot in June 2026 with over 60 percent of the vote against Republican challengers Eric Ching and Erskine Levi, advancing to face Ching in the November general election. The district's demographics, including a large Hispanic population and consistent Democratic margins in recent statewide and presidential contests, further reinforce this positioning. Race ratings from multiple outlets classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic. Realistic shifts in odds would require events such as a major scandal involving the incumbent, an unusually strong national Republican wave altering turnout, or significant changes in candidate resources or messaging within the remaining campaign window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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