Minnesota's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Safe Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Betty McCollum secured reelection with over 67 percent of the vote in 2024, and her filing for the 2026 cycle alongside limited Republican primary challengers reinforces structural advantages in the Saint Paul-centered district. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory based on these entrenched factors, historical margins, and the absence of competitive indicators. A notable shift could occur only through a major scandal involving the Democratic nominee, an extreme national wave election, or unforeseen primary outcomes before the November general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Câmara MN-04
Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara MN-04
$11,370 Vol.
$11,370 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
94%
Partido Republicano
7%
$11,370 Vol.
$11,370 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$3,370 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$8,000 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Safe Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Betty McCollum secured reelection with over 67 percent of the vote in 2024, and her filing for the 2026 cycle alongside limited Republican primary challengers reinforces structural advantages in the Saint Paul-centered district. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory based on these entrenched factors, historical margins, and the absence of competitive indicators. A notable shift could occur only through a major scandal involving the Democratic nominee, an extreme national wave election, or unforeseen primary outcomes before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$11,370Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Safe Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Betty McCollum secured reelection with over 67 percent of the vote in 2024, and her filing for the 2026 cycle alongside limited Republican primary challengers reinforces structural advantages in the Saint Paul-centered district. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory based on these entrenched factors, historical margins, and the absence of competitive indicators. A notable shift could occur only through a major scandal involving the Democratic nominee, an extreme national wave election, or unforeseen primary outcomes before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,370Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Minnesota's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Safe Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Betty McCollum secured reelection with over 67 percent of the vote in 2024, and her filing for the 2026 cycle alongside limited Republican primary challengers reinforces structural advantages in the Saint Paul-centered district. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory based on these entrenched factors, historical margins, and the absence of competitive indicators. A notable shift could occur only through a major scandal involving the Democratic nominee, an extreme national wave election, or unforeseen primary outcomes before the November general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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