Maryland's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat anchored in Prince George's County suburbs, where incumbent Glenn Ivey seeks renomination in the June 23 primary against limited challengers before facing minimal Republican opposition in November. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with Ivey's 88 percent margin in 2024 and the district's partisan voting index exceeding D+39. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 92 percent implied probability due to these structural advantages, sustained fundraising edges, and the absence of competitive dynamics or recent developments that would alter the trajectory. A late-breaking scandal involving the incumbent, significant health concerns, or unexpectedly strong Republican recruitment could narrow the margin, though no such factors have emerged in the current cycle.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMD-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
MD-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
$27,153 Vol.
$27,153 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
92%
Partido Republicano
6%
$27,153 Vol.
$27,153 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$8,107 Vol.
92%
Partido Republicano
$19,046 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat anchored in Prince George's County suburbs, where incumbent Glenn Ivey seeks renomination in the June 23 primary against limited challengers before facing minimal Republican opposition in November. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with Ivey's 88 percent margin in 2024 and the district's partisan voting index exceeding D+39. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 92 percent implied probability due to these structural advantages, sustained fundraising edges, and the absence of competitive dynamics or recent developments that would alter the trajectory. A late-breaking scandal involving the incumbent, significant health concerns, or unexpectedly strong Republican recruitment could narrow the margin, though no such factors have emerged in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$27,153Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat anchored in Prince George's County suburbs, where incumbent Glenn Ivey seeks renomination in the June 23 primary against limited challengers before facing minimal Republican opposition in November. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with Ivey's 88 percent margin in 2024 and the district's partisan voting index exceeding D+39. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 92 percent implied probability due to these structural advantages, sustained fundraising edges, and the absence of competitive dynamics or recent developments that would alter the trajectory. A late-breaking scandal involving the incumbent, significant health concerns, or unexpectedly strong Republican recruitment could narrow the margin, though no such factors have emerged in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$27,153Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat anchored in Prince George's County suburbs, where incumbent Glenn Ivey seeks renomination in the June 23 primary against limited challengers before facing minimal Republican opposition in November. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with Ivey's 88 percent margin in 2024 and the district's partisan voting index exceeding D+39. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 92 percent implied probability due to these structural advantages, sustained fundraising edges, and the absence of competitive dynamics or recent developments that would alter the trajectory. A late-breaking scandal involving the incumbent, significant health concerns, or unexpectedly strong Republican recruitment could narrow the margin, though no such factors have emerged in the current cycle.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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