Incumbent Democrat Sarah Elfreth secured her party's nomination with roughly 75% in the June 2026 primary for Maryland's 3rd congressional district, advancing to face Republican Berney Flowers in the November general election. The district's D+12 partisan voter index, urban-suburban composition across Howard and Anne Arundel counties, and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin the 95.5% trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on structural factors and historical margins. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or national political realignment could narrow the gap, though the current environment shows limited pathways for Republican gains absent major shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMD-03 House Election Winner
MD-03 House Election Winner
$45,762 Vol.
$45,762 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
5%
$45,762 Vol.
$45,762 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$20,975 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$24,788 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sarah Elfreth secured her party's nomination with roughly 75% in the June 2026 primary for Maryland's 3rd congressional district, advancing to face Republican Berney Flowers in the November general election. The district's D+12 partisan voter index, urban-suburban composition across Howard and Anne Arundel counties, and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin the 95.5% trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on structural factors and historical margins. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or national political realignment could narrow the gap, though the current environment shows limited pathways for Republican gains absent major shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$45,762Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sarah Elfreth secured her party's nomination with roughly 75% in the June 2026 primary for Maryland's 3rd congressional district, advancing to face Republican Berney Flowers in the November general election. The district's D+12 partisan voter index, urban-suburban composition across Howard and Anne Arundel counties, and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin the 95.5% trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on structural factors and historical margins. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or national political realignment could narrow the gap, though the current environment shows limited pathways for Republican gains absent major shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$45,762Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sarah Elfreth secured her party's nomination with roughly 75% in the June 2026 primary for Maryland's 3rd congressional district, advancing to face Republican Berney Flowers in the November general election. The district's D+12 partisan voter index, urban-suburban composition across Howard and Anne Arundel counties, and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin the 95.5% trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on structural factors and historical margins. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or national political realignment could narrow the gap, though the current environment shows limited pathways for Republican gains absent major shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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