Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.3% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by March 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—with energy prices surging 10.9%, signaling persistent price pressures despite producer prices rising less than expected. Solid nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 jobs underscored labor market resilience, aligning with the Fed's March decision to hold the 3.50%-3.75% target range and minutes indicating caution on cuts amid elevated uncertainty. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects deferred rate cut hopes to later 2026. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected retail sales or industrial production data ahead of the meeting, potentially prompting a dovish reassessment, though upside inflation risks dominate sentiment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoDecisão do Fed em abril?
Decisão do Fed em abril?
Sem mudança 99.3%
Redução de 25 pontos-base <1%
Aumento de mais de 25 pontos-base <1%
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
$104,333,792 Vol.
$104,333,792 Vol.
29 abr 2026
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base
<1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
<1%
Sem mudança
99%
Aumento de mais de 25 pontos-base
<1%
Sem mudança 99.3%
Redução de 25 pontos-base <1%
Aumento de mais de 25 pontos-base <1%
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
$104,333,792 Vol.
$104,333,792 Vol.
29 abr 2026
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base
$40,677,925 Vol.
<1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
$20,364,680 Vol.
<1%
Sem mudança
$20,685,326 Vol.
99%
Aumento de mais de 25 pontos-base
$22,607,067 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.3% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by March 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—with energy prices surging 10.9%, signaling persistent price pressures despite producer prices rising less than expected. Solid nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 jobs underscored labor market resilience, aligning with the Fed's March decision to hold the 3.50%-3.75% target range and minutes indicating caution on cuts amid elevated uncertainty. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects deferred rate cut hopes to later 2026. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected retail sales or industrial production data ahead of the meeting, potentially prompting a dovish reassessment, though upside inflation risks dominate sentiment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$104,333,792Data de Término
29 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.3% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by March 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—with energy prices surging 10.9%, signaling persistent price pressures despite producer prices rising less than expected. Solid nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 jobs underscored labor market resilience, aligning with the Fed's March decision to hold the 3.50%-3.75% target range and minutes indicating caution on cuts amid elevated uncertainty. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects deferred rate cut hopes to later 2026. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected retail sales or industrial production data ahead of the meeting, potentially prompting a dovish reassessment, though upside inflation risks dominate sentiment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$104,333,792Data de Término
29 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.3% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by March 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—with energy prices surging 10.9%, signaling persistent price pressures despite producer prices rising less than expected. Solid nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 jobs underscored labor market resilience, aligning with the Fed's March decision to hold the 3.50%-3.75% target range and minutes indicating caution on cuts amid elevated uncertainty. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects deferred rate cut hopes to later 2026. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected retail sales or industrial production data ahead of the meeting, potentially prompting a dovish reassessment, though upside inflation risks dominate sentiment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions