The closely balanced market-implied odds between a 25 basis point rate increase and no change at the December 2026 FOMC meeting reflect ongoing uncertainty in the inflation trajectory amid elevated readings and a stable labor market. Persistent supply shocks from Middle East geopolitical tensions have kept headline PCE inflation near 4.1% and core at 3.4% through mid-2026, prompting nine Fed officials to project at least one hike by year-end in June projections and three dissents favoring tighter policy at the July meeting. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.5-3.75% under new Chair Kevin Warsh, who has shifted away from forward guidance, traders weigh incoming CPI and employment data against signs of moderating energy prices and resilient GDP growth. Key near-term catalysts include the September and October FOMC decisions plus fresh inflation and payroll releases that could clarify whether policy needs further restriction or can remain on hold.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado25 bps increase 48%
Sem alteração 45%
25 bps decrease 7.6%
50+ bps decrease 1.9%
$455,201 Vol.
$455,201 Vol.
9 dez 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
8%
Sem alteração
45%
25 bps increase
48%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 48%
Sem alteração 45%
25 bps decrease 7.6%
50+ bps decrease 1.9%
$455,201 Vol.
$455,201 Vol.
9 dez 2026
50+ bps decrease
$75,056 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$98,986 Vol.
8%
Sem alteração
$71,807 Vol.
45%
25 bps increase
$124,252 Vol.
48%
50+ bps increase
$85,099 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The closely balanced market-implied odds between a 25 basis point rate increase and no change at the December 2026 FOMC meeting reflect ongoing uncertainty in the inflation trajectory amid elevated readings and a stable labor market. Persistent supply shocks from Middle East geopolitical tensions have kept headline PCE inflation near 4.1% and core at 3.4% through mid-2026, prompting nine Fed officials to project at least one hike by year-end in June projections and three dissents favoring tighter policy at the July meeting. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.5-3.75% under new Chair Kevin Warsh, who has shifted away from forward guidance, traders weigh incoming CPI and employment data against signs of moderating energy prices and resilient GDP growth. Key near-term catalysts include the September and October FOMC decisions plus fresh inflation and payroll releases that could clarify whether policy needs further restriction or can remain on hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$455,201Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The closely balanced market-implied odds between a 25 basis point rate increase and no change at the December 2026 FOMC meeting reflect ongoing uncertainty in the inflation trajectory amid elevated readings and a stable labor market. Persistent supply shocks from Middle East geopolitical tensions have kept headline PCE inflation near 4.1% and core at 3.4% through mid-2026, prompting nine Fed officials to project at least one hike by year-end in June projections and three dissents favoring tighter policy at the July meeting. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.5-3.75% under new Chair Kevin Warsh, who has shifted away from forward guidance, traders weigh incoming CPI and employment data against signs of moderating energy prices and resilient GDP growth. Key near-term catalysts include the September and October FOMC decisions plus fresh inflation and payroll releases that could clarify whether policy needs further restriction or can remain on hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$455,201Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely balanced market-implied odds between a 25 basis point rate increase and no change at the December 2026 FOMC meeting reflect ongoing uncertainty in the inflation trajectory amid elevated readings and a stable labor market. Persistent supply shocks from Middle East geopolitical tensions have kept headline PCE inflation near 4.1% and core at 3.4% through mid-2026, prompting nine Fed officials to project at least one hike by year-end in June projections and three dissents favoring tighter policy at the July meeting. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.5-3.75% under new Chair Kevin Warsh, who has shifted away from forward guidance, traders weigh incoming CPI and employment data against signs of moderating energy prices and resilient GDP growth. Key near-term catalysts include the September and October FOMC decisions plus fresh inflation and payroll releases that could clarify whether policy needs further restriction or can remain on hold.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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