Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight competition among 28°C (34.5% implied probability), 29°C (27.5%), and 27°C (22.5%), driven by Spain's State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) latest forecast projecting a 29°C maximum for Madrid on April 18 amid a high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and subsidence warming. This marks a sharp rebound from recent cooler highs—16°C on April 12 and 23°C on April 15—due to prior unstable weather giving way to stable anticyclonic conditions. Ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS show convergence in the upper 20s Celsius, but diverge on peak afternoon heating versus potential cumulus cloud development capping temperatures at 27-28°C. Traders await AEMET's April 17 update and Barajas Airport observations for final resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on April 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 18?
28°C 35%
29°C 27%
27°C 22%
30°C 12%
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
3%
26°C
11%
27°C
22%
28°C
35%
29°C
27%
30°C
12%
31°C
3%
32°C or higher
1%
28°C 35%
29°C 27%
27°C 22%
30°C 12%
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
3%
26°C
11%
27°C
22%
28°C
35%
29°C
27%
30°C
12%
31°C
3%
32°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight competition among 28°C (34.5% implied probability), 29°C (27.5%), and 27°C (22.5%), driven by Spain's State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) latest forecast projecting a 29°C maximum for Madrid on April 18 amid a high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies and subsidence warming. This marks a sharp rebound from recent cooler highs—16°C on April 12 and 23°C on April 15—due to prior unstable weather giving way to stable anticyclonic conditions. Ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS show convergence in the upper 20s Celsius, but diverge on peak afternoon heating versus potential cumulus cloud development capping temperatures at 27-28°C. Traders await AEMET's April 17 update and Barajas Airport observations for final resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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