Recent model consensus from agencies like INMET and global ensembles points to a warm, dry air mass sustaining elevated temperatures through August 31 in São Paulo, with ensemble highs clustered near 31–34 °C amid low precipitation odds. This setup explains the market’s elevated implied probability near 30–33 °C while still assigning substantial weight (34 %) to 29 °C or below, reflecting uncertainty over the precise arrival of a cooler, moister front expected early the following week. Key variables include steering flow strength, boundary-layer mixing under northwest winds, and urban heat-island amplification; historical August maxima average only 23–25 °C, underscoring the anomaly. Traders will monitor the next 00Z–12Z runs and official 31 August bulletins for shifts in the thermal ridge or convective initiation that could cap or extend the warmth.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em São Paulo no dia 31 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em São Paulo no dia 31 de agosto?
29°C ou menos 49%
30°C 16%
31°C 15%
32°C 14%
NOVO
NOVO
31 ago 2026
29°C ou menos
35%
30°C
16%
31°C
15%
32°C
14%
33°C
13%
34°C
8%
35°C
4%
36°C
3%
37°C
5%
38°C
<1%
39°C ou mais
<1%
29°C ou menos 49%
30°C 16%
31°C 15%
32°C 14%
NOVO
NOVO
31 ago 2026
29°C ou menos
$267 Vol.
35%
30°C
$100 Vol.
16%
31°C
$69 Vol.
15%
32°C
$42 Vol.
14%
33°C
$0 Vol.
13%
34°C
$31 Vol.
8%
35°C
$0 Vol.
4%
36°C
$7 Vol.
3%
37°C
$10 Vol.
5%
38°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
39°C ou mais
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like INMET and global ensembles points to a warm, dry air mass sustaining elevated temperatures through August 31 in São Paulo, with ensemble highs clustered near 31–34 °C amid low precipitation odds. This setup explains the market’s elevated implied probability near 30–33 °C while still assigning substantial weight (34 %) to 29 °C or below, reflecting uncertainty over the precise arrival of a cooler, moister front expected early the following week. Key variables include steering flow strength, boundary-layer mixing under northwest winds, and urban heat-island amplification; historical August maxima average only 23–25 °C, underscoring the anomaly. Traders will monitor the next 00Z–12Z runs and official 31 August bulletins for shifts in the thermal ridge or convective initiation that could cap or extend the warmth.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 29, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$546Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 29, 2026, 8:55 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like INMET and global ensembles points to a warm, dry air mass sustaining elevated temperatures through August 31 in São Paulo, with ensemble highs clustered near 31–34 °C amid low precipitation odds. This setup explains the market’s elevated implied probability near 30–33 °C while still assigning substantial weight (34 %) to 29 °C or below, reflecting uncertainty over the precise arrival of a cooler, moister front expected early the following week. Key variables include steering flow strength, boundary-layer mixing under northwest winds, and urban heat-island amplification; historical August maxima average only 23–25 °C, underscoring the anomaly. Traders will monitor the next 00Z–12Z runs and official 31 August bulletins for shifts in the thermal ridge or convective initiation that could cap or extend the warmth.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$546Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 29, 2026, 8:55 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from agencies like INMET and global ensembles points to a warm, dry air mass sustaining elevated temperatures through August 31 in São Paulo, with ensemble highs clustered near 31–34 °C amid low precipitation odds. This setup explains the market’s elevated implied probability near 30–33 °C while still assigning substantial weight (34 %) to 29 °C or below, reflecting uncertainty over the precise arrival of a cooler, moister front expected early the following week. Key variables include steering flow strength, boundary-layer mixing under northwest winds, and urban heat-island amplification; historical August maxima average only 23–25 °C, underscoring the anomaly. Traders will monitor the next 00Z–12Z runs and official 31 August bulletins for shifts in the thermal ridge or convective initiation that could cap or extend the warmth.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions