**Current short-range forecasts from sources like WeatherBug and the Met Office indicate a low of 57°F (upper 50s) for San Francisco on August 31 under mostly cloudy skies with southwest winds of 10–20 mph.** This aligns closely with the historical average low of 56.1°F and recent nights in the mid-50s. Marine-layer stratus and typical late-summer onshore flow are expected to limit radiational cooling, keeping overnight temperatures from dropping further while preventing significant warming. Model consensus shows little change through the period, with minimal precipitation risk and stable steering patterns. The market-implied probabilities—led by 56–57°F at 44.5%—reflect traders weighting the latest model runs and climatological norms, with secondary support for 58–59°F. Lower outcomes (below 54°F) carry reduced odds given the absence of anomalous cold-air advection, while higher readings would require an unexpected breakdown in the marine influence. Updated NWS or NOAA guidance over the next 24–48 hours remains the key variable that could shift positioning ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em São Francisco em 31 de agosto?
66°F ou mais 54%
52-53°F 49%
60-61°F 49%
62-63°F 49%
47°F ou menos
47%
48-49°F
18%
50-51°F
15%
52-53°F
49%
54-55°F
26%
56-57°F
36%
58-59°F
31%
60-61°F
49%
62-63°F
49%
64-65°F
49%
66°F ou mais
54%
66°F ou mais 54%
52-53°F 49%
60-61°F 49%
62-63°F 49%
47°F ou menos
47%
48-49°F
18%
50-51°F
15%
52-53°F
49%
54-55°F
26%
56-57°F
36%
58-59°F
31%
60-61°F
49%
62-63°F
49%
64-65°F
49%
66°F ou mais
54%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 29, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current short-range forecasts from sources like WeatherBug and the Met Office indicate a low of 57°F (upper 50s) for San Francisco on August 31 under mostly cloudy skies with southwest winds of 10–20 mph.** This aligns closely with the historical average low of 56.1°F and recent nights in the mid-50s. Marine-layer stratus and typical late-summer onshore flow are expected to limit radiational cooling, keeping overnight temperatures from dropping further while preventing significant warming. Model consensus shows little change through the period, with minimal precipitation risk and stable steering patterns. The market-implied probabilities—led by 56–57°F at 44.5%—reflect traders weighting the latest model runs and climatological norms, with secondary support for 58–59°F. Lower outcomes (below 54°F) carry reduced odds given the absence of anomalous cold-air advection, while higher readings would require an unexpected breakdown in the marine influence. Updated NWS or NOAA guidance over the next 24–48 hours remains the key variable that could shift positioning ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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