Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, which project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 16 at 15-17°C amid a mild spring synoptic pattern featuring weak high pressure and southerly flows bringing continental air masses warmer than early April's cooler anomalies. Differentiating factors include model spread on cloud cover and scattered showers—clearer skies favor 17°C peaks, while overcast conditions cap at 14-15°C—as seen in recent IMGW updates showing central Poland maxima around 12-16°C with passing rain. Historical mid-April highs average 13-15°C at official stations, aligning with this range. New runs from NOAA and European models, plus IMGW briefings on April 15, could refine probabilities before resolution via measured airport data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 16?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 16?
15°C 31%
16°C 30%
14°C 18%
18°C 8%
NOVO
NOVO
16 abr 2026
10°C or below
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
4%
13°C
7%
14°C
18%
15°C
28%
16°C
30%
17°C
7%
18°C
8%
19°C
3%
20°C or higher
1%
15°C 31%
16°C 30%
14°C 18%
18°C 8%
NOVO
NOVO
16 abr 2026
10°C or below
$201 Vol.
1%
11°C
$249 Vol.
1%
12°C
$86 Vol.
4%
13°C
$80 Vol.
7%
14°C
$191 Vol.
18%
15°C
$289 Vol.
28%
16°C
$117 Vol.
30%
17°C
$116 Vol.
7%
18°C
$79 Vol.
8%
19°C
$99 Vol.
3%
20°C or higher
$157 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, which project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 16 at 15-17°C amid a mild spring synoptic pattern featuring weak high pressure and southerly flows bringing continental air masses warmer than early April's cooler anomalies. Differentiating factors include model spread on cloud cover and scattered showers—clearer skies favor 17°C peaks, while overcast conditions cap at 14-15°C—as seen in recent IMGW updates showing central Poland maxima around 12-16°C with passing rain. Historical mid-April highs average 13-15°C at official stations, aligning with this range. New runs from NOAA and European models, plus IMGW briefings on April 15, could refine probabilities before resolution via measured airport data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 14, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$1,528Data de Término
16 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:14 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, which project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 16 at 15-17°C amid a mild spring synoptic pattern featuring weak high pressure and southerly flows bringing continental air masses warmer than early April's cooler anomalies. Differentiating factors include model spread on cloud cover and scattered showers—clearer skies favor 17°C peaks, while overcast conditions cap at 14-15°C—as seen in recent IMGW updates showing central Poland maxima around 12-16°C with passing rain. Historical mid-April highs average 13-15°C at official stations, aligning with this range. New runs from NOAA and European models, plus IMGW briefings on April 15, could refine probabilities before resolution via measured airport data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,528Data de Término
16 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:14 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, which project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 16 at 15-17°C amid a mild spring synoptic pattern featuring weak high pressure and southerly flows bringing continental air masses warmer than early April's cooler anomalies. Differentiating factors include model spread on cloud cover and scattered showers—clearer skies favor 17°C peaks, while overcast conditions cap at 14-15°C—as seen in recent IMGW updates showing central Poland maxima around 12-16°C with passing rain. Historical mid-April highs average 13-15°C at official stations, aligning with this range. New runs from NOAA and European models, plus IMGW briefings on April 15, could refine probabilities before resolution via measured airport data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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