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Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 15?

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Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 15?

abr 15

abr 15

19°C or higher 99.4%

17°C <1%

18°C <1%

9°C or below <1%

Polymarket
NOVO

$242,836 Vol.

19°C or higher 99.4%

17°C <1%

18°C <1%

9°C or below <1%

Polymarket
NOVO

$242,836 Vol.

9°C or below

$4,382 Vol.

<1%

10°C

$12,490 Vol.

<1%

11°C

$10,757 Vol.

<1%

12°C

$4,341 Vol.

<1%

13°C

$4,241 Vol.

<1%

14°C

$4,316 Vol.

<1%

15°C

$11,334 Vol.

<1%

16°C

$40,768 Vol.

<1%

17°C

$48,871 Vol.

<1%

18°C

$46,072 Vol.

<1%

19°C or higher

$55,264 Vol.

99%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 19°C or higher in Mexico City on April 15, with 99.4% implied probability, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like those from NOAA, projecting daytime highs of 25–28°C amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with April climatology, where daily maximums average 26°C at Mexico City's 2,240-meter elevation, rarely dipping below 23°C due to persistent subtropical high-pressure influence and minimal cold-front risks this late in dry season. Supporting evidence includes stable recent observations—highs near 27°C over the past week—and model agreement on continued warming from solar heating. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous polar air intrusion or unexpected cloud cover suppressing insolation, though upper-air patterns show no such signals; monitor SMN's midday update for refinements.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$242,836
Data de Término
15 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 13, 2026, 12:36 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 19°C or higher in Mexico City on April 15, with 99.4% implied probability, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like those from NOAA, projecting daytime highs of 25–28°C amid clear skies and light winds. This aligns with April climatology, where daily maximums average 26°C at Mexico City's 2,240-meter elevation, rarely dipping below 23°C due to persistent subtropical high-pressure influence and minimal cold-front risks this late in dry season. Supporting evidence includes stable recent observations—highs near 27°C over the past week—and model agreement on continued warming from solar heating. Realistic challenges would require an anomalous polar air intrusion or unexpected cloud cover suppressing insolation, though upper-air patterns show no such signals; monitor SMN's midday update for refinements.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$242,836
Data de Término
15 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 13, 2026, 12:36 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 15?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "19°C or higher" at 99%, followed by "9°C or below" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 15?" has generated $242.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 15?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 15?" is "19°C or higher" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "9°C or below" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 15?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.