Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on April 15 at 15°C, closely followed by 14°C at 27%, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) April 14 forecast projecting a 14°C low amid cloudy skies turning to occasional showers with 20-50% precipitation odds. This reflects short-range model consensus for mild mid-April conditions, with southerly flows and urban heat island effects in Tokyo limiting radiative cooling overnight, consistent with historical mid-month lows averaging 12-14°C. Uncertainty arises from variable cloud cover potentially insulating lows higher, while sub-13°C outcomes remain unlikely absent cold air advection; official station measurements will resolve the market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Tóquio no dia 15 de abril?
Temperatura mais baixa em Tóquio no dia 15 de abril?
15°C 36.5%
13°C 8.1%
12°C 3.3%
11°C 1.0%
NOVO
$51,799 Vol.
NOVO
$51,799 Vol.
16 abr 2026
10°C ou menos
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
8%
14°C
43%
15°C
37%
16°C
<1%
15°C 36.5%
13°C 8.1%
12°C 3.3%
11°C 1.0%
NOVO
$51,799 Vol.
NOVO
$51,799 Vol.
16 abr 2026
10°C ou menos
$4,539 Vol.
1%
11°C
$1,265 Vol.
1%
12°C
$1,905 Vol.
3%
13°C
$1,669 Vol.
8%
14°C
$1,886 Vol.
43%
15°C
$2,366 Vol.
37%
16°C
$4,665 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on April 15 at 15°C, closely followed by 14°C at 27%, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) April 14 forecast projecting a 14°C low amid cloudy skies turning to occasional showers with 20-50% precipitation odds. This reflects short-range model consensus for mild mid-April conditions, with southerly flows and urban heat island effects in Tokyo limiting radiative cooling overnight, consistent with historical mid-month lows averaging 12-14°C. Uncertainty arises from variable cloud cover potentially insulating lows higher, while sub-13°C outcomes remain unlikely absent cold air advection; official station measurements will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 13, 2026, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$51,799Data de Término
16 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 13, 2026, 8:18 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on April 15 at 15°C, closely followed by 14°C at 27%, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) April 14 forecast projecting a 14°C low amid cloudy skies turning to occasional showers with 20-50% precipitation odds. This reflects short-range model consensus for mild mid-April conditions, with southerly flows and urban heat island effects in Tokyo limiting radiative cooling overnight, consistent with historical mid-month lows averaging 12-14°C. Uncertainty arises from variable cloud cover potentially insulating lows higher, while sub-13°C outcomes remain unlikely absent cold air advection; official station measurements will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$51,799Data de Término
16 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 13, 2026, 8:18 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on April 15 at 15°C, closely followed by 14°C at 27%, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) April 14 forecast projecting a 14°C low amid cloudy skies turning to occasional showers with 20-50% precipitation odds. This reflects short-range model consensus for mild mid-April conditions, with southerly flows and urban heat island effects in Tokyo limiting radiative cooling overnight, consistent with historical mid-month lows averaging 12-14°C. Uncertainty arises from variable cloud cover potentially insulating lows higher, while sub-13°C outcomes remain unlikely absent cold air advection; official station measurements will resolve the market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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