Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance, center Shanghai's April 15 high temperature at 19-20°C amid partly cloudy skies and mild southerly flow, driving the near deadlock between 20°C or higher (47.5%) and 19°C (42.5%) trader consensus. Divergent cloud fraction projections across model members differentiate outcomes: sparser clouds boost midday solar insolation by up to 100 W/m², enabling 20+°C peaks enhanced by Shanghai's urban heat island, while denser overcast caps diurnal heating at 19°C. Recent dissipation of residual cold air from northern fronts over the past 48 hours supports this mild regime, above April climatological norms of 18-19°C. Final 12z runs today could refine probabilities before official observations resolve the market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 15?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 15?
20°C or higher 50%
19°C 33%
18°C 10%
17°C 3.9%
$66,194 Vol.
$66,194 Vol.
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
4%
18°C
10%
19°C
33%
20°C or higher
50%
20°C or higher 50%
19°C 33%
18°C 10%
17°C 3.9%
$66,194 Vol.
$66,194 Vol.
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
4%
18°C
10%
19°C
33%
20°C or higher
50%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 13, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance, center Shanghai's April 15 high temperature at 19-20°C amid partly cloudy skies and mild southerly flow, driving the near deadlock between 20°C or higher (47.5%) and 19°C (42.5%) trader consensus. Divergent cloud fraction projections across model members differentiate outcomes: sparser clouds boost midday solar insolation by up to 100 W/m², enabling 20+°C peaks enhanced by Shanghai's urban heat island, while denser overcast caps diurnal heating at 19°C. Recent dissipation of residual cold air from northern fronts over the past 48 hours supports this mild regime, above April climatological norms of 18-19°C. Final 12z runs today could refine probabilities before official observations resolve the market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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