Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-certain implied probability (100%) to 290–319 US tornadoes in April 2026, backed by preliminary Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tallies from National Weather Service damage surveys confirming at least 292 events—well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 182. Major drivers include the April 17–18 outbreak (86 tornadoes across the Upper Midwest), late-month sequences in the Plains, and favorable atmospheric patterns like high CAPE and wind shear fostering supercell development. Final National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Storm Data publication, slated for early May, may incorporate minor adjustments from ongoing EF-scale verifications of weaker EF0 tornadoes, but reaching 350+ would require unprecedented late additions, while dropping below 290 seems improbable absent widespread disqualifications.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos Tornados nos EUA em abril?
Quantos Tornados nos EUA em abril?
290–319 100.0%
<140 <1%
140–169 <1%
170–199 <1%
$126,968 Vol.
$126,968 Vol.
10 mai 2026
<140
Não
140–169
Não
170–199
Não
200–229
Não
230–259
Não
260–289
Não
290–319
Sim
320–350
Não
350+
Não
290–319 100.0%
<140 <1%
140–169 <1%
170–199 <1%
$126,968 Vol.
$126,968 Vol.
10 mai 2026
<140
$23,882 Vol.
Não
140–169
$21,650 Vol.
Não
170–199
$9,289 Vol.
Não
200–229
$4,650 Vol.
Não
230–259
$6,429 Vol.
Não
260–289
$1,192 Vol.
Não
290–319
$2,797 Vol.
Sim
320–350
$22,983 Vol.
Não
350+
$34,097 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-certain implied probability (100%) to 290–319 US tornadoes in April 2026, backed by preliminary Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tallies from National Weather Service damage surveys confirming at least 292 events—well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 182. Major drivers include the April 17–18 outbreak (86 tornadoes across the Upper Midwest), late-month sequences in the Plains, and favorable atmospheric patterns like high CAPE and wind shear fostering supercell development. Final National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Storm Data publication, slated for early May, may incorporate minor adjustments from ongoing EF-scale verifications of weaker EF0 tornadoes, but reaching 350+ would require unprecedented late additions, while dropping below 290 seems improbable absent widespread disqualifications.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$126,968Data de Término
10 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-certain implied probability (100%) to 290–319 US tornadoes in April 2026, backed by preliminary Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tallies from National Weather Service damage surveys confirming at least 292 events—well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 182. Major drivers include the April 17–18 outbreak (86 tornadoes across the Upper Midwest), late-month sequences in the Plains, and favorable atmospheric patterns like high CAPE and wind shear fostering supercell development. Final National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Storm Data publication, slated for early May, may incorporate minor adjustments from ongoing EF-scale verifications of weaker EF0 tornadoes, but reaching 350+ would require unprecedented late additions, while dropping below 290 seems improbable absent widespread disqualifications.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$126,968Data de Término
10 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-certain implied probability (100%) to 290–319 US tornadoes in April 2026, backed by preliminary Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tallies from National Weather Service damage surveys confirming at least 292 events—well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 182. Major drivers include the April 17–18 outbreak (86 tornadoes across the Upper Midwest), late-month sequences in the Plains, and favorable atmospheric patterns like high CAPE and wind shear fostering supercell development. Final National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Storm Data publication, slated for early May, may incorporate minor adjustments from ongoing EF-scale verifications of weaker EF0 tornadoes, but reaching 350+ would require unprecedented late additions, while dropping below 290 seems improbable absent widespread disqualifications.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions