Christina Bohannan leads the IA-01 House race in trader consensus due to her narrow 2024 loss to incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks, strong Democratic primary performance, and recent polling averages showing her ahead by low-to-mid single digits in this southeast Iowa swing district. The November 3, 2026, midterm contest features an October 20 debate between the two, ongoing campaign attacks on Miller-Meeks’s fundraising and expenses, and comparable candidate war chests exceeding $7 million each. Forecasters rate the seat competitive or lean Democratic, reflecting the district’s narrow partisan balance, independent candidate Michael Bridgford’s presence, and historical midterm patterns that often challenge the president’s party. These elements sustain Bohannan’s elevated implied probability while leaving room for shifts from turnout or late developments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$31,088 Vol.
$31,088 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Christina Bohannan (D)
78%
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
22%
$31,088 Vol.
$31,088 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Christina Bohannan (D)
$19,604 Vol.
78%
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
$11,484 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Christina Bohannan leads the IA-01 House race in trader consensus due to her narrow 2024 loss to incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks, strong Democratic primary performance, and recent polling averages showing her ahead by low-to-mid single digits in this southeast Iowa swing district. The November 3, 2026, midterm contest features an October 20 debate between the two, ongoing campaign attacks on Miller-Meeks’s fundraising and expenses, and comparable candidate war chests exceeding $7 million each. Forecasters rate the seat competitive or lean Democratic, reflecting the district’s narrow partisan balance, independent candidate Michael Bridgford’s presence, and historical midterm patterns that often challenge the president’s party. These elements sustain Bohannan’s elevated implied probability while leaving room for shifts from turnout or late developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ET
Volume
$31,088Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Christina Bohannan leads the IA-01 House race in trader consensus due to her narrow 2024 loss to incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks, strong Democratic primary performance, and recent polling averages showing her ahead by low-to-mid single digits in this southeast Iowa swing district. The November 3, 2026, midterm contest features an October 20 debate between the two, ongoing campaign attacks on Miller-Meeks’s fundraising and expenses, and comparable candidate war chests exceeding $7 million each. Forecasters rate the seat competitive or lean Democratic, reflecting the district’s narrow partisan balance, independent candidate Michael Bridgford’s presence, and historical midterm patterns that often challenge the president’s party. These elements sustain Bohannan’s elevated implied probability while leaving room for shifts from turnout or late developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$31,088Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Christina Bohannan leads the IA-01 House race in trader consensus due to her narrow 2024 loss to incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks, strong Democratic primary performance, and recent polling averages showing her ahead by low-to-mid single digits in this southeast Iowa swing district. The November 3, 2026, midterm contest features an October 20 debate between the two, ongoing campaign attacks on Miller-Meeks’s fundraising and expenses, and comparable candidate war chests exceeding $7 million each. Forecasters rate the seat competitive or lean Democratic, reflecting the district’s narrow partisan balance, independent candidate Michael Bridgford’s presence, and historical midterm patterns that often challenge the president’s party. These elements sustain Bohannan’s elevated implied probability while leaving room for shifts from turnout or late developments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions