The open seat in Iowa's 4th Congressional District, a longtime Republican stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15 and where the prior incumbent won 67% in 2024, has produced a commanding position for Republican nominee Chris McGowan. McGowan, president of the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce and endorsed by President Trump, ran unopposed after Randy Feenstra retired to pursue an unsuccessful 2026 gubernatorial bid. Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, a former state representative who won a three-way primary, faces structural headwinds in a district spanning rural northwest Iowa including Sioux City and Ames. Nonpartisan forecasts rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical margins and the district's voting patterns limit realistic paths to an upset.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIA-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
IA-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
$32,156 Vol.
$32,156 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
93%
Partido Democrata
7%
$32,156 Vol.
$32,156 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$20,064 Vol.
93%
Partido Democrata
$12,091 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Iowa's 4th Congressional District, a longtime Republican stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15 and where the prior incumbent won 67% in 2024, has produced a commanding position for Republican nominee Chris McGowan. McGowan, president of the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce and endorsed by President Trump, ran unopposed after Randy Feenstra retired to pursue an unsuccessful 2026 gubernatorial bid. Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, a former state representative who won a three-way primary, faces structural headwinds in a district spanning rural northwest Iowa including Sioux City and Ames. Nonpartisan forecasts rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical margins and the district's voting patterns limit realistic paths to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$32,156Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Iowa's 4th Congressional District, a longtime Republican stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15 and where the prior incumbent won 67% in 2024, has produced a commanding position for Republican nominee Chris McGowan. McGowan, president of the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce and endorsed by President Trump, ran unopposed after Randy Feenstra retired to pursue an unsuccessful 2026 gubernatorial bid. Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, a former state representative who won a three-way primary, faces structural headwinds in a district spanning rural northwest Iowa including Sioux City and Ames. Nonpartisan forecasts rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical margins and the district's voting patterns limit realistic paths to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,156Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat in Iowa's 4th Congressional District, a longtime Republican stronghold with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15 and where the prior incumbent won 67% in 2024, has produced a commanding position for Republican nominee Chris McGowan. McGowan, president of the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce and endorsed by President Trump, ran unopposed after Randy Feenstra retired to pursue an unsuccessful 2026 gubernatorial bid. Democratic nominee Dave Dawson, a former state representative who won a three-way primary, faces structural headwinds in a district spanning rural northwest Iowa including Sioux City and Ames. Nonpartisan forecasts rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though historical margins and the district's voting patterns limit realistic paths to an upset.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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