The NY-21 race centers on an open seat in a solidly Republican upstate New York district covering the North Country and Adirondacks, following Elise Stefanik’s decision not to seek reelection. Recent June primaries produced Republican nominee Anthony Constantino, who defeated state Assemblyman Robert Smullen with backing from President Trump, and Democratic nominee Blake Gendebien. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican based on the district’s partisan voting index, turnout patterns, and consistent GOP margins in prior cycles. Trader consensus at roughly 78% Republican reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major post-primary shifts that would alter the implied probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados de NY-21
Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados de NY-21
$53,699 Vol.
$53,699 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
79%
Partido Democrata
20%
$53,699 Vol.
$53,699 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$25,079 Vol.
79%
Partido Democrata
$28,621 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-21 race centers on an open seat in a solidly Republican upstate New York district covering the North Country and Adirondacks, following Elise Stefanik’s decision not to seek reelection. Recent June primaries produced Republican nominee Anthony Constantino, who defeated state Assemblyman Robert Smullen with backing from President Trump, and Democratic nominee Blake Gendebien. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican based on the district’s partisan voting index, turnout patterns, and consistent GOP margins in prior cycles. Trader consensus at roughly 78% Republican reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major post-primary shifts that would alter the implied probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$53,699Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-21 race centers on an open seat in a solidly Republican upstate New York district covering the North Country and Adirondacks, following Elise Stefanik’s decision not to seek reelection. Recent June primaries produced Republican nominee Anthony Constantino, who defeated state Assemblyman Robert Smullen with backing from President Trump, and Democratic nominee Blake Gendebien. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican based on the district’s partisan voting index, turnout patterns, and consistent GOP margins in prior cycles. Trader consensus at roughly 78% Republican reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major post-primary shifts that would alter the implied probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$53,699Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The NY-21 race centers on an open seat in a solidly Republican upstate New York district covering the North Country and Adirondacks, following Elise Stefanik’s decision not to seek reelection. Recent June primaries produced Republican nominee Anthony Constantino, who defeated state Assemblyman Robert Smullen with backing from President Trump, and Democratic nominee Blake Gendebien. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican based on the district’s partisan voting index, turnout patterns, and consistent GOP margins in prior cycles. Trader consensus at roughly 78% Republican reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major post-primary shifts that would alter the implied probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions