NY-21 remains a Republican-leaning district following Elise Stefanik’s decision not to seek re-election, creating an open seat for the November 2026 general election. Traders price the Republican nominee Anthony Constantino at 73 percent after his June primary victory over Robert Smullen, while Democratic nominee Blake Gendebien sits at 25.5 percent following his own primary win. The district’s longstanding partisan voting patterns and limited recent polling continue to anchor these odds, with no major campaign developments or external events yet shifting the implied probability of a Republican hold. General election dynamics, including turnout in upstate New York counties and any late-cycle national headwinds, remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before November.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados de NY-21
Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara dos Deputados de NY-21
$56,270 Vol.
$56,270 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
73%
Partido Democrata
26%
$56,270 Vol.
$56,270 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$26,804 Vol.
73%
Partido Democrata
$29,466 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-21 remains a Republican-leaning district following Elise Stefanik’s decision not to seek re-election, creating an open seat for the November 2026 general election. Traders price the Republican nominee Anthony Constantino at 73 percent after his June primary victory over Robert Smullen, while Democratic nominee Blake Gendebien sits at 25.5 percent following his own primary win. The district’s longstanding partisan voting patterns and limited recent polling continue to anchor these odds, with no major campaign developments or external events yet shifting the implied probability of a Republican hold. General election dynamics, including turnout in upstate New York counties and any late-cycle national headwinds, remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$56,270Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-21 remains a Republican-leaning district following Elise Stefanik’s decision not to seek re-election, creating an open seat for the November 2026 general election. Traders price the Republican nominee Anthony Constantino at 73 percent after his June primary victory over Robert Smullen, while Democratic nominee Blake Gendebien sits at 25.5 percent following his own primary win. The district’s longstanding partisan voting patterns and limited recent polling continue to anchor these odds, with no major campaign developments or external events yet shifting the implied probability of a Republican hold. General election dynamics, including turnout in upstate New York counties and any late-cycle national headwinds, remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$56,270Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...NY-21 remains a Republican-leaning district following Elise Stefanik’s decision not to seek re-election, creating an open seat for the November 2026 general election. Traders price the Republican nominee Anthony Constantino at 73 percent after his June primary victory over Robert Smullen, while Democratic nominee Blake Gendebien sits at 25.5 percent following his own primary win. The district’s longstanding partisan voting patterns and limited recent polling continue to anchor these odds, with no major campaign developments or external events yet shifting the implied probability of a Republican hold. General election dynamics, including turnout in upstate New York counties and any late-cycle national headwinds, remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before November.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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